{"comments":{"870761":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"870761","comment_id":"870761","member_id":"45158","comment":"I hadn't sifted through the results deep enough to see that Oldenburg finally ran. Will be interesting to see where he ends up. Many people thought he was supposed to be Gig's savior at #5 but Hammer has been doing a solid job at that.","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 3:18pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"870359":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"870359","comment_id":"870359","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>DontStopPre, on , said:<\/p>

\nThanks watchout. Yes Gig's 1-3 times obviously were superior and more telling at Firman but obviously Hammer and Moussa ran better at Danner\/Nike based on your conversion to Sun Willows (well Hammer big time and perhaps Moussa).
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nHammer, yes. Moussa ran slower (based on my conversions).
\n
\nCharlie Sheilds ran faster at Danner than Bob Firman as well, though, but he was even better at Sundodger and is likely to be one of the #6-10 runners in the end (so maybe on varsity, but not likely to be a scorer by the look of it). As SteveU suggested (and Doug Binder's recap implied), they probably ran as a group with their #5 (Hammer) to push him to a better time. And it seemed to work, since he ran about 7 seconds faster than he did last week (based on my conversions).
\n
\nHere's the Sun Willows equivalents that Gig Harbor's top 9 have run through their first three meets (this meet and Sundodger were controlled efforts):
\n
\nSundodger - Bob Firman<\/strong> - Nike Pre-Nationals
\n1 Wolfgang Beck: 15:34.96 - 14:53.17<\/strong> - 15:52.47
\n2 Logan Carroll: 15:35.08 - 15:15.52<\/strong> - 15:52.38
\n3 Tristan Peloquin: 15:35.04 - 15:22.06<\/strong> - 15:52.98
\n4 Mahmoud Moussa: 15:34.85<\/strong> - 15:43.43 - 15:53.12
\n5 Michael Hammer: DNS - 15:59.53 - 15:52.30<\/strong><\/span>
\n6 Charlie Shields: 16:49.77<\/strong> - 17:12.62 - 17:06.26
\n7 Jack Shields: 16:52.87<\/strong> - 17:21.99 - ??? (didn't look at sub-Danner yet)
\n8 Jordan Oldenburg: DNS - DNS - 16:56.34<\/strong>
\n9 Ryan Gregory: 17:31.23 - 17:29.40<\/strong> - ??? (didn't look at sub-Danner yet)
\n
\n
\nOf course, conversions are never going to be perfect, but the rough idea applies: The top 4 didn't push it this week, and about all you can take from this is that Michael Hammer ran a little better this week when he had his teammates around him pushing him on.","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 6:28am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"870330":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"870330","comment_id":"870330","member_id":"45158","comment":"

<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p>

\nlow 15:50's... but the real question is what they would run if they were letting loose. Their time at Bob Firman (15:49.7 on a course that's 20-25 seconds slower than Sun Willows) is more telling.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\n Thanks watchout. Yes Gig's 1-3 times obviously were superior and more telling at Firman but obviously Hammer and Moussa ran better at Danner\/Nike based on your conversion to Sun Willows (well Hammer big time and perhaps Moussa).","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 5:28am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"870295":{"pb_id":"9184","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"870295","comment_id":"870295","member_id":"9184","comment":"

<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p>

\nlow 15:50's... but the real question is what they would run if they were letting loose. Their time at Bob Firman (15:49.7 on a course that's 20-25 seconds slower than Sun Willows) is more telling.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nWhat, you don't think they were maxing out with that 0.86 second #1-5 spread? :)
\n
\nDan","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 4:38am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"members\/avatar\/3295.jpg","pb_title":"dkap","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=9184","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/dkap.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"10044"},"870284":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"870284","comment_id":"870284","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>DontStopPre, on , said:<\/p>

\nWatchout: I'm curious what Gig's times of 16:42 at Danner would be equal to on the Sun Willows course. Any idea?
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nlow 15:50's... but the real question is what they would run if they were letting loose. Their time at Bob Firman (15:49.7 on a course that's 20-25 seconds slower than Sun Willows) is more telling.","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 3:54am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"870277":{"pb_id":"45158","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"870277","comment_id":"870277","member_id":"45158","comment":"Watchout: I'm curious what Gig's times of 16:42 at Danner would be equal to on the Sun Willows course. Any idea?","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 3:43am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"DontStopPre","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=45158","pb_wally_id":"1182171"},"870135":{"pb_id":"3026","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"870135","comment_id":"870135","member_id":"3026","comment":"Posted Image","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 2:08am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":{"wally_id":"35","email_settings":"7168","email":"chrisnickinson@gmail.com","address":"chrisnickinson","gender":"m","member_id":"3026","member_name":"Chris Nickinson","avatar_location":"av-3026.jpg","avatar_type":"upload","avatar":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-3026.jpg"},"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-3026.jpg","pb_title":"Chris Nickinson","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=3026","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/chrisnickinson.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"35"},"869671":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"869671","comment_id":"869671","member_id":"43715","comment":"Girls Jim Danner Ratings (200.0 ~ 15:32.8)
\n
\n1 - Alexa Efraimson, 11 - 17:59.67 - Camas - 152.8
\n2 - Ella Donaghu, 10 - 18:40.86 - Grant - 139.5
\n3 - Sam Mckinnon, 12 - 18:55.09 - Mountain View (ID) - 134.9
\n4 - Charlotte Corless, 12 - 19:06.65 - Sunset - 131.2
\n5 - Hannah Gindlesperger, 10 - 19:09.89 - Summit - 130.2
\n6 - Emily Wolff, 12 - 19:22.62 - Arapahoe - 126.1
\n7 - Rose Christen, 12 - 19:26.76 - Central Kitsap - 124.8
\n8 - Nicole Goecke, 12 - 19:27.23 - Prairie - 124.6
\n9 - Alexis Fuller, 11 - 19:33.79 - Union - 122.5
\n10 - Paige Dilmore, 12 - 19:36.20 - Rocky Mountain - 121.7
\n
\n
\n14 - Talley Hill, 9 - 19:42.49 - Arroyo Grande - 119.7
\n18 - Angela Gemignani, 10 - 19:54.12 - Arroyo Grande - 116.0
\n20 - Jocelyn Reynolds, 11 - 19:58.12 - Arroyo Grande - 114.7
\n39 - Elizabeth Heyde, 11 - 20:34.54 - Arroyo Grande - 103.0
\n51 - Haley Chavez, 9 - 20:51.17 - Arroyo Grande - 97.6
\n54 - Leza Cassidy, 10 - 20:56.50 - Arroyo Grande - 95.9
\n55 - Rosa Granados, 9 - 20:56.67 - Arroyo Grande - 95.8
\n
\n5 - Hannah Gindlesperger, 10 - 19:09.89 - Summit - 130.2
\n13 - Olivia Brooks, 9 - 19:37.76 - Summit - 121.2
\n24 - Kaely Gordon, 11 - 20:05.07 - Summit - 112.4
\n35 - Piper McDonald, 11 - 20:22.46 - Summit - 106.9
\n65 - Hadley Schoderbek, 12 - 21:10.77 - Summit - 91.3
\n77 - Jessica Cornett, 11 - 21:28.24 - Summit - 85.7
\n79 - Emma Su, 12 - 21:30.08 - Summit - 85.1
\n
\n10 - Paige Dilmore, 12 - 19:36.20 - Rocky Mountain - 121.7
\n22 - Sara Mussleman, 9 - 20:02.34 - Rocky Mountain - 113.3
\n44 - Ellen Caminiti, 12 - 20:38.71 - Rocky Mountain - 101.6
\n45 - Brittany Wilding, 10 - 20:40.36 - Rocky Mountain - 101.1
\n58 - Julia Fretwell, 12 - 21:03.11 - Rocky Mountain - 93.8
\n62 - Carli Corpus, 10 - 21:08.40 - Rocky Mountain - 92.1
\n81 - Faith Dilmore, 9 - 21:41.15 - Rocky Mountain - 81.5
\n
\n1 - Alexa Efraimson, 11 - 17:59.67 - Camas - 152.8
\n15 - Alissa Pudlitzke, 11 - 19:45.90 - Camas - 118.6
\n27 - Marley LeFore, 9 - 20:09.51 - Camas - 111.0
\n47 - Maddie Woodson, 10 - 20:43.49 - Camas - 100.1
\n83 - Meghan Finley, 9 - 21:46.44 - Camas - 79.8
\n101 - Mckenzie Good, 12 - 22:09.14 - Camas - 72.5
\n108 - Alexa Jones, 10 - 22:28.68 - Camas - 66.3
\n
\n4 - Charlotte Corless, 12 - 19:06.65 - Sunset - 131.2
\n28 - Nicole Griffiths, 10 - 20:13.41 - Sunset - 109.8
\n38 - Audrey Huelskamp, 10 - 20:33.49 - Sunset - 103.3
\n52 - Isabel Huelskamp, 10 - 20:51.84 - Sunset - 97.4
\n61 - Kendall Butz, 11 - 21:07.09 - Sunset - 92.5
\n104 - Michelle Lo, 11 - 22:19.50 - Sunset - 69.2
\n111 - Maika Thiringer, 12 - 22:39.55 - Sunset - 62.8
\n
\n3 - Sam Mckinnon, 12 - 18:55.09 - Mountain View (ID) - 134.9
\n31 - Erin Hagen, 11 - 20:17.38 - Mountain View (ID) - 108.5
\n41 - Kaitlyn Fox, 11 - 20:34.96 - Mountain View (ID) - 102.8
\n53 - Allison Ellingson, 11 - 20:51.97 - Mountain View (ID) - 97.4
\n56 - Holly Ellingson, 11 - 20:58.64 - Mountain View (ID) - 95.2
\n84 - Mariah Simpson, 11 - 21:47.74 - Mountain View (ID) - 79.4
\n91 - Reagan Badger, 9 - 21:56.71 - Mountain View (ID) - 76.5","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 12:26am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"869654":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"869654","comment_id":"869654","member_id":"43715","comment":"I'll have to do each race separately due to the conditions, but...
\n
\nBoys Jim Danner Ratings (200.0 ~ 15:34.4)
\n
\n1 - Matthew Maton, 11 - 15:57.99 - Summit - 192.4
\n2 - Elijah Armstrong, 11 - 16:04.25 - Pocatello - 190.4
\n3 - Andrew Rafla, 12 - 16:07.29 - Timberline - 189.5
\n4 - Sam Levora, 12 - 16:14.56 - Sandpoint - 187.1
\n5 - Reilly Bloomer, 11 - 16:14.83 - South Eugene - 187.0
\n6 - Devon Grove, 12 - 16:19.45 - Lake Washington - 185.5
\n7 - Cameron Stanish, 12 - 16:23.54 - Garfield - 184.2
\n8 - Alejandro Cisneros, 12 - 16:28.35 - Hermiston - 182.7
\n9 - Dylan Hayes, 12 - 16:34.12 - Garfield - 180.8
\n10 - Benjamin Gonzalez, 11 - 16:34.16 - Warren - 180.8
\n
\n
\n13 - Michael Hammer, 11 - 16:42.09 - Gig Harbor - 178.3
\n14 - Logan Carroll, 12 - 16:42.18 - Gig Harbor - 178.2
\n15 - Wolfgang Beck, 12 - 16:42.27 - Gig Harbor - 178.2
\n16 - Tristan Peloquin, 11 - 16:42.81 - Gig Harbor - 178.0
\n17 - Mahmoud Moussa, 12 - 16:42.95 - Gig Harbor - 178.0
\n109 - Jordan Oldenburg, 12 - 17:49.48 - Gig Harbor - 156.6
\n118 - Charles Shields, 12 - 17:59.92 - Gig Harbor - 153.3
\n
\n10 - Benjamin Gonzalez, 11 - 16:34.16 - Warren - 180.8
\n18 - Michael Hernandez, 12 - 16:44.18 - Warren - 177.6
\n23 - Andres Barragan, 11 - 16:52.28 - Warren - 175.0
\n33 - Jonathan Rodriguez, 11 - 17:04.82 - Warren - 171.0
\n49 - Faustino Diaz, 12 - 17:19.19 - Warren - 166.4
\n58 - Matthew Sanchez, 10 - 17:24.27 - Warren - 164.7","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 12:20am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"869652":{"pb_id":"42418","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"869652","comment_id":"869652","member_id":"42418","comment":"Girls results up now, too. No contest this time, at least so the times show: Efraimson 17:59, Donaghu 18:40. Don't know how it unfolded.","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 12:13am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-42418.jpeg","pb_title":"SteveU","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=42418","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/SteveU.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1030740"},"869651":{"pb_id":"42418","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"869651","comment_id":"869651","member_id":"42418","comment":"It looks like the Gig kids all ran just as fast as their 5th man could go. Andrew Rafla ... must be pretty good, too.
\n
\nGood win for Maton!
\n
\n

<\/a>watchout, on , said:<\/p>

\nNot yet, but the boys results literally just got posted... Gig Harbor with some pretty impressive (controlled) pack running, and Maton with the big win
\n
\n1.\t11\tMatthew Maton\t15:57.99\tSummit\t
\n2.\t11\tElijah Armstrong\t16:04.25\tPocatello\t
\n3.\t12\tAndrew Rafla\t16:07.29\tTimberline\t
\n4.\t12\tSam Levora\t16:14.56\tSandpoint\t
\n5.\t11\tReilly Bloomer\t16:14.83\tSouth Eugene\t
\n6.\t12\tDevon Grove\t16:19.45\tLake Washington\t
\n7.\t12\tCameron Stanish\t16:23.54\tGarfield\t
\n8.\t12\tAlejandro Cisneros\t16:28.35\tHermiston\t
\n9.\t12\tDylan Hayes\t16:34.12\tGarfield\t
\n10.\t11\tBenjamin Gonzalez\t16:34.16\tWarren\t
\n11.\t12\tGeremia Lizier-Zmudzinski\t16:39.62\tForest Grove\t
\n12.\t12\tJose Macias\t16:41.82\tHermiston\t
\n13.\t11\tMichael Hammer\t16:42.09\tGig Harbor\t
\n14.\t12\tLogan Carroll\t16:42.18\tGig Harbor\t
\n15.\t12\tWolfgang Beck\t16:42.27\tGig Harbor\t
\n16.\t11\tTristan Peloquin\t16:42.81\tGig Harbor\t
\n17.\t12\tMahmoud Moussa\t16:42.95\tGig Harbor\t<\/strong>
\n18.\t12\tMichael Hernandez\t16:44.18\tWarren\t
\n19.\t12\tBen Harter\t16:44.28\tSheldon\t
\n20.\t11\tCole Christman\t16:45.81\tWenatchee
<\/div><\/div>","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 12:11am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-42418.jpeg","pb_title":"SteveU","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=42418","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/SteveU.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1030740"},"869648":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"869648","comment_id":"869648","member_id":"43715","comment":"Not yet, but the boys results literally just got posted... Gig Harbor with some pretty impressive (controlled) pack running, and Maton with the big win
\n
\n1.\t11\tMatthew Maton\t15:57.99\tSummit\t
\n2.\t11\tElijah Armstrong\t16:04.25\tPocatello\t
\n3.\t12\tAndrew Rafla\t16:07.29\tTimberline\t
\n4.\t12\tSam Levora\t16:14.56\tSandpoint\t
\n5.\t11\tReilly Bloomer\t16:14.83\tSouth Eugene\t
\n6.\t12\tDevon Grove\t16:19.45\tLake Washington\t
\n7.\t12\tCameron Stanish\t16:23.54\tGarfield\t
\n8.\t12\tAlejandro Cisneros\t16:28.35\tHermiston\t
\n9.\t12\tDylan Hayes\t16:34.12\tGarfield\t
\n10.\t11\tBenjamin Gonzalez\t16:34.16\tWarren\t
\n11.\t12\tGeremia Lizier-Zmudzinski\t16:39.62\tForest Grove\t
\n12.\t12\tJose Macias\t16:41.82\tHermiston\t
\n13.\t11\tMichael Hammer\t16:42.09\tGig Harbor\t
\n14.\t12\tLogan Carroll\t16:42.18\tGig Harbor\t
\n15.\t12\tWolfgang Beck\t16:42.27\tGig Harbor\t
\n16.\t11\tTristan Peloquin\t16:42.81\tGig Harbor\t
\n17.\t12\tMahmoud Moussa\t16:42.95\tGig Harbor\t<\/strong>
\n18.\t12\tMichael Hernandez\t16:44.18\tWarren\t
\n19.\t12\tBen Harter\t16:44.28\tSheldon\t
\n20.\t11\tCole Christman\t16:45.81\tWenatchee","date_added":"Sep 29th 2013, 12:02am","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"869641":{"pb_id":"42418","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"869641","comment_id":"869641","member_id":"42418","comment":"Any word on Donaghu vs. Efraimson II?","date_added":"Sep 28th 2013, 11:55pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-42418.jpeg","pb_title":"SteveU","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=42418","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/SteveU.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"1030740"},"869615":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"869615","comment_id":"869615","member_id":"43715","comment":"Luckily, the rainstorm has hit more north than expected, and Portland didn't see all that much rain.
\n
\n8-day total is at 1.17 and only the Danner Championship races are left (first is going on right now, I think).
\n
\nLooks like the efforts by Nike to keep the course in better condition has paid off - initial estimate is that times are running about 20-30 seconds faster than NXN 2007, which had very similar rainfall leading up to the race.","date_added":"Sep 28th 2013, 11:00pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"868675":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"868675","comment_id":"868675","member_id":"43715","comment":"Maybe. But for whatever reason, when I was researching this over the summer (in reviewing past NXN ratings), it seemed like the 8 days leading up to the meet had by far the strongest correlation. I only went out as far as 20 days though, and there are of course other factors that play into it as well.","date_added":"Sep 27th 2013, 9:56pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"868673":{"pb_id":"9184","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"868673","comment_id":"868673","member_id":"9184","comment":"Great research, watchout, but I think and hope that time of year will factor in, as well. December races have a month plus of solid rain, completely saturating the ground and making drainage near impossible, whereas this weekend might be mostly surface muck after just one bad week or so.
\n
\nToo bad the championship races aren't first thing in the morning, though. Six hours of stampeding might make the course a mess, regardless.
\n
\nDan","date_added":"Sep 27th 2013, 9:50pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"members\/avatar\/3295.jpg","pb_title":"dkap","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=9184","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/dkap.runnerspace.com\/","pb_wally_id":"10044"},"868644":{"pb_id":"43715","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"868644","comment_id":"868644","member_id":"43715","comment":"

<\/a>hayward102, on , said:<\/p>

\nGood preview. It should be a fun day. I am curious what the course conditions are going to be like. I'm not expecting anything like December, but with a wet last week or two, and rain predicted for tomorrow, I'm assuming the course conditions are going to be worse than typical for this meet. I guess we'll find out what it looks like out there Saturday morning.
<\/div><\/div>
\n
\nThough probably<\/em> not as bad as NXN 2012, I think it's safe to assume this is going to be NXN type conditions. Over the last week, and adding what's expected today and tonight, you're talking about 1.5-2.5 inches of rain. Lucky this meet isn't on Sunday or Monday, because it would be even worse then (storm supposed to get the worse and worse with 2.5-3.5 inches by Monday).
\n
\nGuess we'll get an early preview as to how effective Nike's new measures are going to be to maintain better course conditions...
\n
\nEDIT: Assuming the best, the rainfall profile is closest to 2010... a reminder of how that race went, here's the top 10's:
\n
\n1 Lukas Verzbicas 11 Midwest-1 15:59.2
\n2 Edward Cheserek 13 Northeast-2 16:01.5
\n3 Craig Lutz 11 Highland Village 16:04.4
\n4 Ammar Moussa 11 Arcadia XC Club 16:16.3
\n5 Spencer Wenck 11 Southwest-1 16:19.8
\n6 Lane Werley 11 California-3 16:24.3
\n7 Ryan Urie 11 California-4 16:28.2
\n8 Brian Gohlke 11 South-1 16:28.8
\n9 Tony Somaragiewicz 12 Heartland-1 16:29.9
\n10 Kenji Bierig 11 Central Spokane 16:30.5
\n
\n1 Rachel Johnson 11 South-1 18:18.6
\n2 Christie Rutledge 12 Manlius XC Club 18:21.4
\n3 Amy-Eloise Neale 13 Northwest-2 18:48.8
\n4 Katie Sischo 12 Manlius XC Club 18:49.7
\n5 Haley Pierce 12 Wilmington XC Club 18:50.4
\n6 Jillian Fanning 13 Manlius XC Club 18:51.7
\n7 Shaylyn Tuite 11 New York-3 18:52.1
\n8 Katie Knight 13 Northwest-1 18:53.3
\n9 Caroline Hardin 14 Bozeman XC Club 18:53.5
\n10 Brittany Winslow 11 New York-1 18:54.2
\n
\n
\n
\n8-day rainfall measurements leading up to NXN the past few years:
\n
\n2012 = 2.19 inches
\n2011 = 0.61 inches
\n2010 = 1.35 inches
\n2009 = 0.23 inches
\n2008 = 0.29 inches
\n2007 = 1.19 inches
\n
\nwhich would suggest it'll be as sloppy as 2010 at best, though possibly<\/em> as bad as 2012. If Nike's new measures end up alleviating 20%, it might end up closer to 2007 (and so the boys winning time might be as good as the 15:50-16:20 range tomorrow) or, at worst, slightly better than 2012.","date_added":"Sep 27th 2013, 7:47pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/forum\/uploads\/av-43715.jpg","pb_title":"watchout","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43715","pb_wally_id":"1073498"},"868088":{"pb_id":"43664","pb_type":"members","likes":"0","parent_id":"0","pid":"868088","comment_id":"868088","member_id":"43664","comment":"Good preview. It should be a fun day. I am curious what the course conditions are going to be like. I'm not expecting anything like December, but with a wet last week or two, and rain predicted for tomorrow, I'm assuming the course conditions are going to be worse than typical for this meet. I guess we'll find out what it looks like out there Saturday morning.","date_added":"Sep 26th 2013, 6:28pm","nest":0,"liked":false,"member":[],"can_delete":false,"item_id":180334,"item_type":"news","pb_image":"i\/no_avatar.png","pb_title":"hayward102","pb_url":"profile.php?member_id=43664","pb_url_dns":"https:\/\/www.runnerspace.com\/profile.php?member_id=43664","pb_wally_id":"1073473"}},"last_id":"868088","url":"comments.php?item_type=news&item_id=180334&item_url=gprofile.php?mgroup_id=44531"}