Loudoun Valley ready to make noise in the Southeast

By Paul Schmitz of DyeStat

Boys Southeast Preview

The Southeast is a region on the rise and will be filled with intriguing storylines this fall.  The transfer of Sam Affolder and his 9:02 3,200-meter PR to Loudoun Valley of Northern Virginia is the story that tops that list.

Even before this transfer, Loudoun Valley was the team to beat in the region. With this new addition, LV will be one of the top teams in the entire country. The team with the best chance of giving Loudoun Valley a run at the regional title is one that already has national experience: St. Xavier of Louisville, Ky. The two-time defending Kentucky large school champion used a superstar-free lineup to a second-place NXR Southeast finish and placed a respectable 13th at NXN in 2016.

One of the great cross country stories from 2016 carrying over into 2017 is the battle in Maryland between Dulaney and Severna Park. Last year at the state meet the two teams put up identical 16:57 team averages with Dulaney taking home the title with a 97-98 team score. Severna Park returned the favor a short time later at the NXR Southeast regional, edging Dulaney by one place, 11th to 12th. Only adding to the drama, both teams return ALL SEVEN of their top runners!  This year Severna Park has a slight edge based on a better spring on the track, but it will be another fun year in Maryland. Neither of those teams crack the top five for now, but they have have the experience to be competitive in the region.   

The team to beat in North Carolina is Green Hope (more about the Falcons below). The team that can challenge Green Hope within the state is Mount Tabor, which is led by Cameron Ponder (9:06 3,200 meters), who is the top individual returner in the state. Mount Tabor did not run at NXR Southeast last year.  If  the Spartans choose to go in 2017 and if they can fill out the lineup a bit more, they have a top four to compete at the regional level. Class 3A champion Chapel Hill returns five of its top six and looks to repeat its title in North Carolina. Despite considerable depth, Chapel Hill doesn't have the firepower at the top to beat its 4A counterparts.

In Alabama, there is a changing of the guard in progress. Four-time defending state champion Auburn graduated its top four runners and this fall it could be someone else's turn to stand on the top of the podium. The call is Mountain Brook. A top team from Alabama has not competed at NXR Southeast and none have qualified for nationals since Hoover went to the inaugural NTN in 2004. Mountain Brook is not currently in the regional top five, but it has the speed and depth to challenge.

Mississippi gets a mention this year because of defending state champion Ocean Springs. OS returns all seven runners from its championship team and uses effective pack running to set itself apart from in-state competition. However, the pack will need to cut 20 seconds off its times from last year to compete with the regionally ranked teams.  

1. Loudoun Valley VA.  The Vikings return six of the top seven on a team that finished third at NXR Southeast last year. Peter Morris, an individual NXN qualifier last year and a 9:12 3,200 runner this spring, was already emerging as a low stick for a very deep team. Solid returners plus a big transfer could turn a top-15 team into one of the top teams in the nation.  

2. St. Xavier, Louisville KY.  The pack running of St. Xavier propelled them to a 13th-place finish at NXN last year, proving that they belonged in the field and didn’t just qualify because they were from the Southeast. The team returns six of the top seven and is primed for a big season. If St. Xavier and Loudoun Valley run as expected, then any team that runs close to them can make a good case for advancing to NXN. 

3. Green Hope NC. Needham Broughton has dominated North Carolina recently, winning five of the last six 4A titles with the other going to Mount Tabor. Both of those teams will be in contention again but Green Hope rates as the favorite. Green Hope was second to Broughton last year and sixth at the Southeast regional. The Falcons return their top four runners and six of seven, and 10 runners that have run under 10 minutes in the 3,200 on the track.   

4. Brentwood Academy TN.  Not to be confused with its crosstown rivals with a name that is nearly identical, this small-school Tennessee team placed fifth at NXR Southeast last year after dominating their Division II-AA state meet. The team is led by small-class individual champion Carter Cheeseman, who is followed by several sub-10 3,200 runners on a team that returns its top four and six of seven. 

5. Milton GA. Milton appears to be the top team in Georgia and is led by state 3,200-meter champion Sam Bowers. The team returns five of its top six from a 2016 campaign that finished third in the largest classification in Georgia. The difference-maker for Milton is Iowa transfer Nicholas Yanek, who owns a 9:32 3,200 PR and a 16th-place finish in the NXR Heartland regional last year.   

Watch List:

Trinity Prep FL

Mount Tabor NC

The Bolles FL

Severna Park MD

Marist GA

Dulaney MD

Trinity KY

Mountain Brook AL

Brentwood TN

Wando SC