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National Team Rankings - 10/3 Girls - XC - Dyestat

Published by
DyeStat.com   Oct 3rd 2013, 3:46pm
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NATIONAL XC TEAMS REGIONAL XC TEAMS NATIONAL XC INDIVIDUALS

 

Oct 3 - Girls - DyeStat National XC Team Rankings

2013 Release Dates: Preseason - Oct 3 - Oct 17 - Oct 31 - Nov 14 - Nov 28 - Dec 12
by Rob "Watchout" Monroe

 

The Top 40

1 - Davis UT
2 - Unionville PA
3 - Simi Valley CA
4 - Carmel IN
5 - Bozeman MT
6 - Wayzata MN
7 - Fort Collins CO
8 - Birmingham Seaholm MI
9 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY
10 - Capistrano Valley CA
11 - Cherry Creek CO
12 - Buchanan CA
13 - Great Oak CA
14 - Monarch CO
15 - Xavier Prep AZ
16 - Saline MI
17 - Trabuco Hills CA
18 - La Costa Canyon CA
19 - Naperville North IL
20 - Northville MI
21 - Desert Vista AZ
22 - Park City UT
23 - Blacksburg VA
24 - Coeur D'Alene ID
25 - Saugus CA
26 - Davis Senior CA
27 - St. Francis (Sac) CA
28 - Saratoga Springs NY
29 - The Woodlands TX
30 - St Mary's Academy OR
31 - Serrano CA
32 - Rockford MI
33 - American Fork UT
34 - San Clemente CA
35 - Campolindo CA
36 - Hudsonville MI
37 - Cardinal Gibbons NC
38 - Arrowhead WI
39 - Pine Creek CO
40 - Suffern NY



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8 comment(s)
watchout

Aron Taylor @XCnation, on , said:

Davis is very good, they just ran 17:45 3-mile team average, only '99 Bingham, UT has done that at Altitude! Oh, and they also won the national team title...is it possible that Davis can win NXN?



Interesting you asked that, Aron, since you were just informing me yesterday that you thought there was "No metric on earth that would state Davis as US#1"

But to answer your question, yes, I think it is possible Davis can win NXN.
watchout
Or maybe it's a third option:

Griak had 50 teams in the meet, so the points can add up VERY quickly. Yes, Wayzata is very good and very deep. They are ranked #6 because they are very good. Their depth is a great plus, it can protect them from "off races" by their scorers.

If Cherry Creek's #2 raced where she normally would, that would cut their time by 12 seconds/runner (or so), bringing the gap down to 15 seconds/runner. Yes, Wayzata would still have had 7 runners ahead of Cherry Creek's #3 - Wayzata is very deep. That's also not unprecedented - in the 2010 NXN race, Runner-up Saratoga had 6 runners ahead of third place Saugus' #4, and they were only separated by 13 points (104-117). Not QUITE the same, but you see the point (I hope). Cherry Creek's #5 would have been only 25 seconds from Wayzata's #5, and their #4 within 15 seconds. Certainly that's enough to put Wayzata ahead of Cherry Creek (and they are), but just how much space do you think that merits when you're talking about top teams?

As for Fort Collins, on a normal day I'd say FC's #5 is about on par with Cherry Creek's #3 - the same one that finished 6 seconds behind Wayzata's #5. I don't think that represents a significant difference, either.
Sean O'Day
As always, it's fun to see the results of the hard work you put into these rankings. Nit-picking them is...well, I guess a luxury we all get when you put these out there. So here's mine.

It seems to me that either Wayzata is ranked quite low, or the Colorado schools are ranked a bit high.

At Griak, Wayzata was about 30 seconds per girl faster than Cherry Creek. (Creek was without their #2, but even if she finished side by side with Colter, the gap is still 50-ish points, which seems quite significant in my eyes) Furthermore, Wayzata's 7th runner finished one place behind Creeks #2 (or 3 if they had their #2)

Creek, FoCo, and Monarch have done nothing to distinctly separate themselves from each other. At John Martin, Creek and FoCo had the same pack time. The meets beforehand happened long ago that they are likely (and for good reason) not relevant.
watchout

waveown, on , said:

Thanks for the quick reply! I was just curious because in the SW region, Park City went from 2nd to 7th in one week. Is it because their top runner hasn't been running? Whatever the case, the SW region has 7 in the top 25 and 9 in the top 40!


Yes. As I mentioned on the boys thread, my rankings look at what each athlete has done in the last 3 weeks, the last 4 weeks, the last 5 weeks (and so on). It's been more than 3 weeks since Park City's soccer athlete McKenzie Bothner has raced, so if she races this weekend at their home invite, you can expect they'll move up. (Side-note: She is still included, but her average is placing her as their fifth runner half a minute behind their #4 simply because she hasn't raced recently, but if you look at their season best ratings she'd clearly be running with or ahead of their front trio).

The Southwest is a very strong region, particularly on the girls side.
waveown
Thanks for the quick reply! I was just curious because in the SW region, Park City went from 2nd to 7th in one week. Is it because their top runner hasn't been running? Whatever the case, the SW region has 7 in the top 25 and 9 in the top 40!
watchout
I maintain the same regional order in the national rankings (regional rankings influence the limit of how high a team is ranked nationally - the MW#4 team won't be ranked ahead of the MW#3 team, for instance, even if the MW#4 team would score better in an NXN caliber meet versus an NXR caliber meet).

So, yes, if the region is deep enough, one could easily look at the national rankings and pick out what the regional rankings would be if they were to be published this week.

Statistics background: well, math was my strong suit in school, and I'm only 26 and haven't had time to have a full-time career in another professional field (this obviously takes up all the time I can handle in the fall), so my only background in statistics is just math courses in school, and what I've been able to learn and teach myself since I started doing this back in 2004.
waveown
Thanks for doing the rankings, Rob! It seems like a lot of work, but also a lot of fun.

Last week the regional rankings came out. Could we pick out new regional rankings based on this list, or does the combination of all the regions shuffle things around on the national level?

Also, what kind of statistics background do you have? Just curious...
Jonneboy
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