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National Individual Rankings - 11/21 Boys - XC - Dyestat

Published by
DyeStat.com   Nov 21st 2013, 8:54am

 

NATIONAL XC TEAMS REGIONAL XC TEAMS NATIONAL XC INDIVIDUALS

 

DyeStat Individual Rankings - Top 30 Boys

2013 Release Dates: Preseason - Sept 26 - Oct 10 - Oct 24 - Nov 7 - Nov 21 - Dec 5 - Dec 19
by Doug Binder, Dyestat Editor

Geberkidane takes his show on the road

 

Top 30

1 – Cerake Geberkidane, senior, Denver East (Colorado): Idle since state meet; has NXN SW on Saturday.


2 – Blake Haney, senior, Stockdale (California): Won the Kern County Championship.


3 – Matthew Maton, junior, Summit (Oregon): Still unbeaten, big test coming at BorderClash vs. Washington guys.


4 – Tanner Anderson, junior, North Central (Washington): Washington and NXN NW champion.


5 – Joe Hardy, senior, Seattle Prep (Washington): Runner-up to Anderson in WA 3A meet, focused on Foot Locker.


6 – Aaron Templeton, senior, Hardin Valley Academy (Tennessee): Won second straight Tennessee crown.


7 – Mark Hadley, senior, Boardman (Ohio): Won the Ohio Division I title.


8 – Addison DeHaven, senior, Brookings (South Dakota): Won NXN Heartland.


9 – Patrick Perrier, senior, O'Fallon (Illinois): Won the Illinois 3A title.


10 – Bryce Millar, junior, Fayetteville-Manlius (New York): Won the NY state Class A title.


11 – Obsa Ali, senior, Richfield (Minnesota): Runner-up at NXN Heartland.


12 – Mickey Burke, senior, Rush Henrietta (New York): Close third at NY state meet.


13 – Connor McMillan, senior, American Fork (Utah): Won Utah 5A title.


14 – Louis Colson, senior, Edison (Virginia): Won Virginia 5A title.


15 – Elijah Armstrong, junior, Pocatello (Idaho): Won the Idaho Class 4A race, runner-up at NXN Northwest.


16 – Grant Fisher, junior, Grand Blanc (Michigan): Won the Michigan Division 1 title.


17 – Thomas O'Neill, senior, Middletown North (New Jersey): No. 8 all-time at Holmdel Park at Groups.


18 – Tal Braude, senior, Torrey Pines (California): Won NCC League title.


19 – Garrett Corcoran, senior, Villa Park (California): Won section prelims race.


20 – Tony Russell, senior, West Chester Henderson (Pennsylvania): Won the AAA state title.


21 – Noah Kauppila, senior, Marquette (Missouri): Missouri champ had rough go at NXN Midwest.


22 – John Dressel, junior, Mt. Spokane (Washington): Third in the Washington 3A race.


23 – Steven Fahy, senior, La Costa Canyon (California): Won NCC League title.


24 – Levi Thomet, junior, Kodiak (Alaska): Preparing for Foot Locker West.


25 – Trevor Hopper, senior, Ridgefield (Connecticut): Won the New England Championships.


26 – Stuart McNutt, junior, Blue Valley West (Kansas): Third at NXN Heartland.


27 – Sukhi Khosla, junior, Leon (Florida): Won the Florida Class 3A title.


28 – Evan Stifel, senior, St. Xavier (Ohio): Big effort to win the NXN Midwest Regional.


29 – Ben Huffman, senior, Providence Day (North Carolina): Followed NCISA championship with sub-9 3,200.


30 – Jesse Reiser, junior, McHenry (Illinois): Runner-up at Illinois 3A and Midwest NXN meets.


Honorable Mention: Alec Thomas TN, Brian Cook NY, Andrew Rafla ID, Kai Wilmot WA, Connor Olson MN, Louis Corgliano NJ, Josiah Hanko, Ian Milder NC, Philip Hall NC, Chandler Austin IA, Nicholas Elswick OH, Estevan De La Rosa CA, Philip Rocha CA, David Luna CA, Austin Tamagno CA, Kyle Levermore NJ; Liam Mullett NJ, Olin Hacker WI, Sydney Gidabuday CA, Kramer Morton UT, Jacob Pickle TX, Austen Dalquist TX, Josef Holt-Andrews ME, Mac Macoy AL, Conner Mantz UT; Clayson Shumway UT, Zack Smith IL, Kyle Thompson OR, Jackson Bertoli IN, Jonah Henry WY, Matthew Brafford WV, Christian Alvarado CT, Colin Tierney RI, Mike McClemens NJ, Mike Brannigan NY, Blair Hurlock CA, Alex Ostberg CT, Andrew Tellames CA.



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21 comment(s)
 Bsarno1
This weekend's NXN, FL and CIF results certainly stirred up the boys mix. It may be time that Braude and Haney change places. Henderson should move up. Burke fits in around 12-15...field for boys FLNE did not seem as strong this year, Crew heading from northeast to Portland looks stronger than those going to San Diego...some of the Southern boys deserve top 30 consideration. The California kids appear to be sorting themselves out but still a large group of contenders. Could be a vintage year or a so-so one for the Californians. Expect good things from the Calif. teams in Portland, less so for the individual at San Diego, although they will have the close-to-home edge.
Scott Joerger

MatthewXCountry, on , said:

And it just gets crazier, Luna defeats both Tamagno ad Gidebuday at SS finals today, Ogden and Brandt defeat De La Rosa and Rocha. Its almost like we are using dice to determine the top 10 or so in CA. This is just insane. After today, I think Corcoran might be the only runner in CA to have a winning head to head record againt the majority of the top 10 boys. Forget FL west, even the state divisional races are going to be amazing.


So true Matthew! California is crazy deep with frontrunners this year. I count 22 Californians who have broken 15:00 on Mt. Sac this year (see my post here). FLW is going to be a madhouse!
MatthewXCountry

watchout, on , said:

Amen.

I know I've said this before, but...

California should have it's own Foot Locker region. It is plenty good enough, and so is the rest of the West. If there is any doubt, they could always move Colorado to the West. (And that would allow for non-CA athletes out west to compete at both NXN and FLN - seems like a good move for Foot Locker to me!!)


And it just gets crazier, Luna defeats both Tamagno ad Gidebuday at SS finals today, Ogden and Brandt defeat De La Rosa and Rocha. Its almost like we are using dice to determine the top 10 or so in CA. This is just insane. After today, I think Corcoran might be the only runner in CA to have a winning head to head record againt the majority of the top 10 boys. Forget FL west, even the state divisional races are going to be amazing.
watchout

MatthewXCountry, on , said:

I also just realized that Clovis may have been another big meet that perhaps helped those like Rocha get on the list and keep Correa off (Correa won his heat, but in a far slower time than the top guys in the seeded heat). I agree CA is extremely deep. When we look at my list above we might think oh man they all beat each other in somewhat unpredictable ways, so maybe all of them shouldn't be on this list. Then you look at the times they are running and are like wow, what a deep year! Footlocker west is going to be interesting.



Amen.

I know I've said this before, but...

California should have it's own Foot Locker region. It is plenty good enough, and so is the rest of the West. If there is any doubt, they could always move Colorado to the West. (And that would allow for non-CA athletes out west to compete at both NXN and FLN - seems like a good move for Foot Locker to me!!)
MatthewXCountry

DougB, on , said:

Love this post, very informative. You made a great case for both of those guys. Correa is definitely on my radar more than Webb because of his early season win over De La Rosa, which sort of blew up my preseason ranking! I'm looking forward to seeing how these championship meets in California go, and beyond with post-season meets. California is very deep and you're right that Haney and Corcoran appear to be a slight cut above. The honorable mentions list probably doesn't get as much thought as I should give it. There are a lot of state champions in that HM list and I try to recognize them even if I can't quite fit them into the top 30. The cut off point of being named or unnamed in the HM list is always going to be difficult and leave someone feeling left out. If Correa and Webb finish strong and beat those guys in these remaining meets ... I won't miss them.


I also just realized that Clovis may have been another big meet that perhaps helped those like Rocha get on the list and keep Correa off (Correa won his heat, but in a far slower time than the top guys in the seeded heat). I agree CA is extremely deep. When we look at my list above we might think oh man they all beat each other in somewhat unpredictable ways, so maybe all of them shouldn't be on this list. Then you look at the times they are running and are like wow, what a deep year! Footlocker west is going to be interesting.
DougB

MatthewXCountry, on , said:

I find it interesting that Steve Correa of San Pedro and Caleb Webb of Big Bear didn't make the honorable mention list given the fact that they have favorable records against the others listed in the HM section they have competed against.

Steve Correa's Record against the following athletes (wins for Steve - wins for other guy)

Phillip Rocha 3 - 0
Estevan De La Rosa 2 - 1
Steven Fahy 1 - 0
Sydney Gidabuday 1 - 1
Blake Haney 1 - 1
David Luna 1 - 1
Tal Braude 0 - 1
Austin Tamagno 0 - 2
Garrett Corcoran 0 - 2

Note that Correa's performance at Laguna Hills was faster than many of the historical greats on that slow course, including Ammar Moussa - who ran on that course 3 times.

Webb's Record against the following athletes (wins for Webb - wins for other guy)

Steven Fahy 1 - 0
Blake Haney 1 - 1
David Luna 1 - 1
Estevan De La Rosa 1 - 1
Phillip Rocha 1 - 1
Austin Tamagno 1 - 1
Tal Braude 0 - 1
Sydney Gidabuday 0 - 2
Garrett Corcoran 0 - 2

Here is another way of making the comparison

Blake Haney (1st, 1st, 14th)
Garrett Corcoran (3rd, --, 2nd) - (Woodbridge, Stanford, Mt. Sac)
Tal Braude (--, 9th, 1st)
Phillip Rocha (14th, 7th, 8th)
Steven Fahy (--, 3rd, 11th)
David Luna (8th,--, 4th)
Estevan De La Rosa (2nd, 4th, 100+)
Austin Tamagno (6th, --, 3rd)
Sydney Gidabuday (4th,--, 9th)
Blair Hurlock (--,5th,6th)
Steve Correa (7th, --, 7th)
Webb (5th , --, 10th)


I believe Haney and Corcoran look to be a bit stronger than the rest, but after that they all look very similar. To me it feels like everyone in CA is very invincible and it just depends on who is having the better day. Very few of these guys have perfect records against most the people on this list.



Love this post, very informative. You made a great case for both of those guys. Correa is definitely on my radar more than Webb because of his early season win over De La Rosa, which sort of blew up my preseason ranking! I'm looking forward to seeing how these championship meets in California go, and beyond with post-season meets. California is very deep and you're right that Haney and Corcoran appear to be a slight cut above. The honorable mentions list probably doesn't get as much thought as I should give it. There are a lot of state champions in that HM list and I try to recognize them even if I can't quite fit them into the top 30. The cut off point of being named or unnamed in the HM list is always going to be difficult and leave someone feeling left out. If Correa and Webb finish strong and beat those guys in these remaining meets ... I won't miss them.
MatthewXCountry
I find it interesting that Steve Correa of San Pedro and Caleb Webb of Big Bear didn't make the honorable mention list given the fact that they have favorable records against the others listed in the HM section they have competed against.

Steve Correa's Record against the following athletes (wins for Steve - wins for other guy)

Phillip Rocha 3 - 0
Estevan De La Rosa 2 - 1
Steven Fahy 1 - 0
Sydney Gidabuday 1 - 1
Blake Haney 1 - 1
David Luna 1 - 1
Tal Braude 0 - 1
Austin Tamagno 0 - 2
Garrett Corcoran 0 - 2

Note that Correa's performance at Laguna Hills was faster than many of the historical greats on that slow course, including Ammar Moussa - who ran on that course 3 times.

Webb's Record against the following athletes (wins for Webb - wins for other guy)

Steven Fahy 1 - 0
Blake Haney 1 - 1
David Luna 1 - 1
Estevan De La Rosa 1 - 1
Phillip Rocha 1 - 1
Austin Tamagno 1 - 1
Tal Braude 0 - 1
Sydney Gidabuday 0 - 2
Garrett Corcoran 0 - 2

Here is another way of making the comparison

Blake Haney (1st, 1st, 14th)
Garrett Corcoran (3rd, --, 2nd) - (Woodbridge, Stanford, Mt. Sac)
Tal Braude (--, 9th, 1st)
Phillip Rocha (14th, 7th, 8th)
Steven Fahy (--, 3rd, 11th)
David Luna (8th,--, 4th)
Estevan De La Rosa (2nd, 4th, 100+)
Austin Tamagno (6th, --, 3rd)
Sydney Gidabuday (4th,--, 9th)
Blair Hurlock (--,5th,6th)
Steve Correa (7th, --, 7th)
Webb (5th , --, 10th)


I believe Haney and Corcoran look to be a bit stronger than the rest, but after that they all look very similar. To me it feels like everyone in CA is very invincible and it just depends on who is having the better day. Very few of these guys have perfect records against most the people on this list.
DougB

Idaho4177, on , said:

Correction:

#15 Elijah Armstrong actually won the Idaho Class 4A race, Honorable mention Andrew Rafla won the 5A title.



That's what I get for relying on my sometimes faulty memory. Thanks. Fixed. Impressive run by Rafla at NXN NW, btw, definitely caught my attention.
DougB

Alert170, on , said:

Junior Mike Brannigan (New York) Runner Up New York State Meet?



Based on that state meet alone there is a very good case for Brannigan to be in the top 30. He beat Burke, who I've been assuming all along was the top guy in NY. No question. Millar now seems like the top guy and Brannigan - I think deep down I'd like to see one more killer result first to know where he belongs. Definitely right on the cusp, though.
And for that matter, Feds champ Brian Cook is close too.
Idaho4177
Correction:

#15 Elijah Armstrong actually won the Idaho Class 4A race, Honorable mention Andrew Rafla won the 5A title.
Alert170
Junior Mike Brannigan (New York) Runner Up New York State Meet?
DougB
I have heard that Hardy has given up his spot to continue training for Foot Locker.

Like Central Catholic, it is also reasonable to assume that Gig Harbor and North Central are training through this event. So agendas are definitely at play.

Still, I think Maton vs. Anderson, Wilmot, Dressel, Grove, etc. will be interesting.
watchout
Yes/No, IMO, regarding BorderClash.

Some of the kids are definitely going to take it very seriously. Others aren't.

The Central Catholic boys, for example, are planning to work out hard this week because they are hoping they get an At-Large bid to NXN and want to do well at NXN, and believe that a hard workout that week would be more beneficial than saving themselves for one last hurrah at BorderClash. Same might be true for kids focused on qualifying for Foot Locker or already qualified for NXN. And then others who are focused on FLW or NXN are still going to run hard here.

Quote from Doug's interview: "We have to act like we're going to be in. We've got six guys in the BorderClash so I asked them, 'Do you want an easy week and go after BorderClash or do you want to run a hard workout late in the week?' And they said 'Let's train like we're in and be ready to run nationals.'"


That being said, I'm sure that most will run hard, but there will probably be some that have other priorities and might not run their best. That doesn't necessarily mean the best won't come out on top, just that there will probably be more kids than usual that you'd expect to do better that simply don't finish where you'd think they would.

The relevant question is, of the nationally elite athletes, who gives it their all and who has other priorities this week? I wouldn't bet against Maton/Hardy/Dressel (and probably the NC athletes) all running hard this week, since they didn't run NXN-NW and/or are coming from Spokane for the race, but who knows for sure.
cerutty fan

A-Yoho, on , said:

Perhaps Alan Yoho should be in these ranking next time around...


The talent seems to be there, but racing in D5 races all year makes it very difficult to be recognized. The times are impressive for "running alone", but a bit slower than the top CA kids who at one time or another have just about all raced each other.

Yoho will probably be the type who sees a good jump in college when matched up against runners who are more fit and require him to go 100% more often. Winning races by 20-30 seconds doesn't have that same effect.

He's a big talent, that is for sure.
jodeelael
I am not sure you can use Border Clash is an indicator to see if Mathew Maton or the WA boys are faster. Boarder Clash is not like a State Championship or Nike Regional Race, it is meant to be "fun" race. Just a thought....
Kevin
I don't think I could disagree more on the BorderClash comment. Not just that fun and competitive don't have to be mutually exclusive, but that the best kids always seem to come out on top at this race. There's a huge amount of pride on the line, they want to justify their wins at state, or use it as a chance at redemption. I think it will be very telling to see how Maton does against Tanner and Hardy, Hardy, who basically was part of a 3-man win last year after the top WA guys all came in together.
A-Yoho
Perhaps Alan Yoho should be in these ranking next time around...
DougB
thanks!
Bsarno1
Need a quick fix..Josiah Hanko twice..no big deal...consider how daunting your task is. Erase this.
DougB
I do not use a speed rating, although I will admit to looking at Bill Meylan's ratings as a helpful source of info.

I do it mostly on feel ... who beat who by how much in big races, recent results matter more than older results, a bad day may cost you a few spots but it doesn't wipe out a body of work. State championship races matter more than regular season meets. I try to take in as much info as I can and sort them, or adjust them from one set to the next. I can tell you that I frequently get stuck trying to shoe-horn the final 5 guys into the last 2 spots and it's tough.

Mt. SAC was big for Tal Braude, who ran the fastest time of the meet. That one meet probably impacts his ranking more than anybody else, and of course it was the reason Haney fell back to No. 2.
cerutty fan
Doug, do you use a speed ranking of some sort to generate these lists? If so, what are the speed rankings and equivalent times at Mt. SAC for your top 30 here?
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