Embracing the trophy requires embracing the cold

By Doug Binder, DyeStat Editor

PORTLAND, Ore. -- Bill Aris runs a tight ship when he brings teams to Nike Cross Nationals. Sometimes you get the sense on a Thursday or Friday that F-M runners aren't having as much fun as the other teams feted by Nike prior to the racing at Portland Meadows.

 
But who has the most fun when the races are over? Particularly the F-M girls, for course, because they have won the last seven years here.

 
I spoke with Aris briefly Friday afternoon. He used an economics analogy to explain how his girls have gotten progressively better over the course of the last four months, going from "unfinished goods" to "finished products."
So F-M is going to lay it on the line with a chance to win for the eighth year in a row, which by itself is amazing. There is absolutely no reason to suspect a letdown from that group -- boys included -- becuase no team competes at NXN with more willpower, focus and commitment than F-M.

 
But even Aris is quick to concede that it is going to be much closer this year. The gap between previous F-M teams and the rest of the field has either narrowed -- or evaporated all together.

 
I have to believe that when athletes woked up Friday morning and looked out their hotel windows at Embassy Suites that some enjoyed seeing the snow more than others.

 
"I started laughing," Addison DeHaven said.

 
When DeHaven left South Dakota this week to come West it was minus-25.

 
If you are an athlete from the upper Midwest, from a Rocky Mountain state, from Spokane, or the Northeast -- I have to think that you saw snow on the ground and it felt like "home."
Portland has a wet winter climate. But snow, particularly the cold snow that fell early Friday morning, is not very common.

 
But part of what makes the Portland Meadows course somewhat unique is that teams arrive not knowing what the course conditions are going to be.

 
I asked Californians Blake Haney and Austin Tamagno what they thought of the course run-through on Friday and they said all of the right things. They admitted it was cold but they also said it wouldn't affect them. (One of the boys teams from California ran shirts-off on the course on Friday in order to acclimated).

 
Cold and a little bit of snow on the ground is going to be a factor in Saturday's racing.
I think that could be a slight advantage to the teams from cold-weather states. And in a tight, competitive field like this it just might be the difference-maker. Cold, wind and snow could be discouraging if you don't have experience with it.

 
I have to believe that some teams will thrive. The Bozeman girls are used to running in much colder conditions. The Colorado teams, Utah teams, the boys and girls from Wayzata High School in Minnesota -- I think they are going to have good days.

 
So for the sake of a little fun, here are some of my predictions, plus Rob Monroe's projected team scores:

 
Girls individual winner: Elise Cranny. Reason: Because she lives in Boulder, Colorado and is more used to running -- if not racing -- in really cold conditions. I think that Sarah Baxter will perform admirably and try to run away from everyone in the first mile. But I don't believe that she is going to shake Alexa Efraimson and Cranny. And I think that if those two are able to sit on Baxter, they will use superior foot speed to go past her in the final 200. So why not Efraimson? No reason. I just think Cranny might be a little more sure-footed.

 
Girls team championship: Davis (Utah). Reason: First, let me say that I have utmost respect for Coach Aris and what he pulls out of his teams. But this is going to be close and I don't think F-M is going to win this every year. Davis is well-coached, was ranked No. 1 at the time of the Utah state meet, and is one of the top teams that won't be intimidated by the cold. I think it's going to be close. It could be Unionville, Carmel, Great Oak as well.

 
Boys individual winner: Cerake Geberkidane. Reason: The things he did this season in Colorado were remarkable and that points to a possibility that he's simply the best guy here. He's from Denver, which means he's no stranger to the cold. But there are reasons why this not a sure thing. For one, he doesn't have much experience racing on big stages. A short-list of potential winners has to include DeHaven, Estevan De La Rosa, Mike Brannigan, Tanner Anderson, Mike McClemens and Blake Haney.

 
Boys team championship: CBA. Reason: It's going to be a blue-collar, hard-nosed team that wins this thing. Athletes are going to have to stay mentally focused in wind, cold and possible icy patches. And some of them are going to get spiked running close quarters with flying half-inch spikes. CBA may be a private school, but the athletes on this team have endured Hurricane Sandy. Co-coach Chris Bennett told me that there are guys on this team who had to evacuate their homes for two weeks. I think this team is battle-tested and I like that knowing that there will be 400-500 people at a watch party in New Jersey watching the webcast. Would I be surprised if F-M or Gig Harbor or Arcadia or American Fork won this? No. I suspect on each team's best day they can be No. 1. We'll find out which team can dig deepest.

And just for the sake of another perspective, here is DyeStat rankings specialist Rob Monroe's projections:

Boys Projected Scores

139 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
172 Christian Brothers Academy NJ
173 Gig Harbor WA
226 American Fork UT
234 Arcadia CA
234 Brentwood TN
240 North Central WA
247 Liverpool NY
251 Cincinnati St. Xavier OH
269 Southlake Carroll TX
271 Northport NY
274 West Chester Henderson PA
276 Carmel IN
338 Severna Park MD
346 Central Catholic OR
361 Dana Hills CA
362 Hinsdale Central IL
363 Madera South CA
377 Wayzata MN
399 Davis UT
406 Edina MN
443 Lewisville Hebron TX

Comments on team favorites:

Fayetteville-Manlius NY has come on strong at the end of the year, shattering the course record at venerable Bowdoin Park, and also have a history of running well at NXN. Fayetteville-Manlius has sent 7 teams to NTN/NXN before, and have finished on the podium in three of those years and their average place is 8.57. They have never finished worse than 16th, and have finish as high as second twice (2004 and 2010). It is hard to find a weak link in FM's scoring lineup, but if there is any weakness it is that there is a notable drop-off from their #5 to #6 (compared to other favorites). They will need strong races from every one of their scorers to finish on the podium this weekend.

North Central WA is the most consistent program (during the Regional era) that looks to be a challenger, with six previous trips to NXN including three podium finishes and an average finish of fifth. They are one of three favorites that have won (in 2008) an NXN title already. This is the first year they haven't come into the meet as the Northwest Regional Champion, but are stronger up front than ever before with two runners (Tanner Anderson and Kai Wilmot) capable of finishing in the top five. They also sport one of the stronger #5's in the field, but the key to their success will be how good of a day their #3/4 runners have.

Christian Brothers Academy NJ has qualified for NTN/NXN five times before, winning in 2011 and finishing in the top five two other times (2010 and 2012). They come to Portland as one of the five undefeated teams this year, including a win over Fayetteville-Manlius at the Manhattan Invitational. They don't have the strongest front quartet of the favorites, but they are likely the deepest with the best #5-7 punch which ensures a little breathing room if someone has a bad day (and have the greatest likelihood of having a #6/7 runner step up big and finish as a scorer when the team needs them the most).

American Fork UT has qualified for NXN five years in a row now, and have finished in the top eight each time. They have also finished better each time, culinating in last year's runner-up finish to Arcadia. They are another undefeated team this year, having dominated the Southwest. They are strong up front, and have a very good #4-7 group, but the question is how well their #3 fares: a good day could mean a national title.

Arcadia CA is the only boys team to have won NXN twice, and look to make it a third time in four years. They hadn't competed at NTN/NXN prior to 2009, when they finished 20th, but haven't placed worse than fourth in either of the three years since. The returning National Champions are also the only favorites to have lost to a team that didn't qualify for NXN this year. They are fronted by the top returner from last year's race in Estevan De La Rosa, but he might not even be the top guy on their team (soph standout Phillip Rocha has beaten him a few times this year). The key to their success will be how well their #3 and especially #5 runners do. A tight pack up front would mean a third national title and first back-to-back boys champions in NTN/NXN history.

Gig Harbor WA has gone undefeated and shattered course records at the Washington State meet along the way. It should be noted that the top Washington team has never finished worse than seventh at NXN, and has finished in the top four six of the nine years, and this looks to be the best team Washington has ever sent to Portland. Like Fayetteville-Manlius, there it is hard to find a weakness in the scoring group as long as their usual #1 is back to where he was prior to the Washington State meet. They also share FM's situation of having a drop off from #5 to #6, however, which means they need strong races from all of their scorers to finish on the podium.

Brentwood TN has gone undefeated in the Southeast, led by a strong front quartet. If their #5 runs well enough, Brentwood should be the first Southeast team to finish near the top, with the current Southeast-best finish being tenth place by last year's Blacksburg VA squad.

Liverpool NY is a first time qualifier and looks like the top At-Large team in the field. They won the NY Federations race and seriously challenged FM all three times they raced this year. If their front runners start them off well, they are a serious threat to be the first At-Large team to finish on the podium during the Regional era (Loyola Academy IL was the closest so far with their fourth place finish in 2009, only one point away).

St. Xavier OH earned their first trip to Portland last year as the top At-Large team, and had one of the better races that day in beating MW#2 Carmel that year and weren't far off of NXN#6 MW Champion York IL either. Another inspired performance would put St. Xavier in serious contention for a podium finish. They are led by the NXN-Midwest champion, though even better news is that he was usually their #2 runner throughout the season.

 
Girls Projected Scores

128 Fayetteville-Manlius NY
187 Great Oak CA
197 Unionville PA
203 Carmel IN
205 Fort Collins CO
213 Davis UT
215 Monarch CO
221 Wayzata MN
222 Pennsbury PA
278 Bozeman MT
315 Southlake Carroll TX
333 New Braunfels TX
345 Coe-Brown NH
356 Naperville North IL
362 Simi Valley CA
368 Davis Senior CA
370 Saratoga Springs NY
372 The Woodlands TX
389 Assumption KY
415 East Ridge MN
434 Bellarmine Prep WA
442 Blacksburg VA

Comments on team favorites:

Fayetteville-Manlius NY has won seven straight NXN titles, and look primed to challenge for number eight this year despite some early season setbacks. One of the other favorites in the field, Unionville PA, has raced FM twice this year and came out on top both times - first at McQuaid NY Invitational and then again at the Manhattan NY Invitational. Since then, FM has improved, and come into the meet with the best #3-4 punch in the nation. No one has a better history of running well at NXN, and if that trend continues Fayetteville-Manlius should stand atop the podium once more, though this year the field looks to be closer than ever.

Fort Collins CO also has a record of being one of the best programs in the nation when it comes to running well at NXN, finishing as the top Southwest team each of the six years they have qualified (which is every year during the regional era) and have never finished worse than eighth, and include a third place finish in the 2009 race. The Lambkins of Fort Collins may have lost at their state meet, but Colorado has consistently been one of the strongest states in the nation and the team that beat them, Monarch, looks to be one of the top At-Large teams in the field this year. More importantly, Fort Collins came back from the disappointment by winning the NXN-Southwest title (arguably the second strongest region during the NXN era) over then-US#2 Davis UT by as close a margin as there can be: their #5 runner outleaned Davis' #5 at the line, edging ahead of 0.01 seconds for the decisive margin. Can the battle tested group be the first team from outside of New York to win a national title? It's possible, especially with good days from their #2/3 runners.

Carmel IN qualified for NXN for the fourth time in a row, and have finished better each year (7th in 2010, 5th in 2011 and 3rd last year). They are undefeated and one of the deeper teams in the nation, and also have a strong front runner in FLMW Champion Kelcy Welch. With a strong race from their #2/3 runners, Carmel should be able to improve upon last year's third place finish and possibly end up on top of the podium.

Great Oak CA started off the season without the services of a couple key scorers, but have gotten better and better as the season has gone on and are hitting their stride at exactly the right time. The Wolfpack have qualified for NXN twice before, but fell short of expectations both times in finishing 13th in 2010 and 16th in 2012. This team has the experience and talent to finish at the top, so the biggest question is will this be the year they break through? They were only two second off the Woodward Park (CA State) course record set by Sagusu in 2008, and broke the Mt. SAC course record the week before at CIF-SS Finals. IF Great Oak runs up to their ability and closes the gap back to their #4/5 runners, they are the biggest threat FM has witnessed during their 7 year reign.

Davis UT is the only other team among the favorites that has qualified for NXN multiple times, finishing ninth in 2007 and 12th in 2012. The Darts spent a significant portion of the year ranked #1 in the nation, and are running their best right now. They feature possibly the deepest roster in the nation, leaving great potential for #6/7 runners to step up when their team needs a big day to push them over the top, and as long as their front trio mix it up with the front runners from the other favorites, they could be the first Southwest team to finish on the podium since Fort Collins in 2009.

Wayzata MN had possibly the greatest race on either side at NXN last year when the first-time qualifiers finished a surpising seventh place in a very deep field. They returned most of their team and rival Great Oak, Carmel and Davis as deepest in the nation, but the biggest question is up front. Their #1 all season, Anna French, was sensation but ran into problems at the end of the year including having to sit out the NXN Regional meet (where their #2-6 runners picked up the slack to thoroughly dominate the region, by the way - they are THAT deep). She started her comeback by running adequately at FLMW, but still far off where she was earlier in the season. With her at the top of her game, and if Wayzata's performance in Portland last year was any indication, the Trojans should be the highest finishing team in Heartland history and a serious threat to win the NXN title.

Monarch CO has been strong all year, including a win over NXN-Southwest champion Fort Collins at the loaded 5A State meet. Sporting a great #3-4 punch, Monarch could be the first At-Large team since Saratoga Springs NY in 2007 to finish on the podium with good days from their front duo.

Unionville PA is the only favorite on to never have qualified for NXN in the past, but that could have been due to this also being the first time they raced at NXN-Northeast. Unionville has the distinction of being the ONLY team to have beaten Fayetteville-Manlius TWICE in the same season during their seven year reign atop the national scene, can they be the first to make it three times? They enter the race undefeated, and with strong races from their #4/5 runners, could most certainly be in the mix to end the Empire State streak at nine national championships in a row.