What does the data tell us from NXN?

By Rob Monroe, DyeStat Contributor

In reviewing the results of Saturday's Nike Cross Nationals, some teams ran notably faster AND scored significantly lower than projected; other teams scored significantly lower mostly by winning the small battles (They may not have run much faster, but they beat a majority of the runners that were near them. They competed successfully).

Here are the four teams that had great days in both team time and team score:

1. Wayzata MN Girls* – Team time was 1.69% faster than projected and scored 48.61% of their projected point total. *Projected team scores did not include Anna French as a scorer, as she was held out of NXN-HL and was still working her way back judging by FLMW results. And she, of course, came up huge.

2. Gig Harbor WA Boys – Team time was 1.77% faster than projected and scored 64.16% of their projected point total.

3. Edina MN Boys – Team time was 1.36% faster than projected and scored 64.66% of their projected point total.

4. Brentwood TN Boys – Team time was 1.31% faster than projected and scored 74.42% of their projected point total.

Additionally, here are five teams that made big strides in team scoring without the big difference in team time (points generally came from being towards the front of the group of runners they finished with):

1. Davis UT Girls

2. Simi Valley CA Girls

3. Davis CA Girls

4. Christian Brothers Academy NJ Boys*

5. Carmel IN Boys

*Projected team scores did not include Francis Bogan, who was held out of NXN-NE.

Another side of the story is identifying the (scoring) individuals that stepped up to exceed expectations. Who took their their teams to the next level? Here are the top 20 boys and top 20 girls that made it all possible.

Boys:

1. Wolfgang Beck, Gig Harbor WA #1 = 3.84% faster than projected

2. Ryan Lee, Brentwood TN #5 = 3.38% faster than projected

3. Michael Hall, Cincinnati St. Xavier OH #1 = 2.87% faster than projected

4. Michael Summers, Lewisville Hebron TX #3 = 2.81% faster than projected

5. Matt Lumbar, Edina MN #1 = 2.64% faster than projected

6. Kai Wilmot, North Central WA #1 = 2.62% faster than projected

7. David Ellenberger, Edina MN #3 = 2.58% faster than projected

8. Taylor Caldwell, Brentwood TN #1 = 2.44% faster than projected

9. Connor McMillan, American Fork UT #1 = 2.43% faster than projected

10. Estevan De La Rosa, Arcadia CA #1 = 2.37% faster than projected

11. Tristan Peloquin, Gig Harbor WA #3 = 2.36% faster than projected

12. Coleman Churitch, Brentwood TN #2 = 2.34% faster than projected

13. Ryan Forsyth, Severna Park MD #1 = 2.14% faster than projected

14. Colter Blanchard, Davis UT #5 = 1.80% faster than projected

15. Ben Veatch, Carmel IN #1 = 1.79% faster than projected

16. Logan Carroll, Gig Harbor WA #2 = 1.77% faster than projected

17. Kevin Moy, West Chester Henderson PA #5 = 1.47% faster than projected

18. Ian Eklin, Wayzata MN #4 = 1.46% faster than projected

19. Tony Russell, West Chester Henderson PA #1 = 1.28% faster than projected

20. Justin Janke, North Central WA #3 = 1.26% faster than projected

Girls:

1. Anna French, Wayzata MN #1 = 6.23% faster than projected

2. Abbie Wright, Assumption KY #3 = 2.73% faster than projected

3. Olivia Rosellini, Simi Valley CA #2 = 2.58% faster than projected

4. Bridgette Zerbe, Unionville PA #5 = 2.35% faster than projected

5. Caroline Hardin, Bozeman MT #1 = 2.35% faster than projected

6. Sierra Graham, Davis UT #4 = 1.60% faster than projected

7. Sarah Baxter, Simi Valley CA #1 = 1.60% faster than projected

8. Bailey Ness, East Ridge MN #1 = 1.51% faster than projected

9. Sophie Meads, Davis Senior CA #4 = 1.48% faster than projected

10. Sofia Castiglioni, Davis Senior CA #2 = 1.48% faster than projected

11. Judy Pendergast, Naperville North IL #2 = 1.39% faster than projected

12. Samantha Barajas, Simi Valley CA #5 = 1.37% faster than projected

13. Kelsey Harris, Carmel IN #2 = 1.33% faster than projected

14. Karina Mann, Monarch CO #5 = 1.24% faster than projected

15. Samantha Miller, Fort Collins CO #4 = 1.14% faster than projected

16. Taylor Cox, Davis UT #1 = 1.14% faster than projected

17. Giulia McIsaac, Davis Senior CA #3 = 1.10% faster than projected

18. Claire Hamilton, Naperville North IL #3 = 1.08% faster than projected

19. Charlotte Utash, Simi Valley CA #3 = 1.07% faster than projected

20. Michaela Keller-Miller, Wayzata MN #4 = 1.00% faster than projected

As a state, Washington had a great day and was the first ever state to have three national champions on the same day at NXN. Here is a breakdown of how all the Washington teams and Top-15 Individuals have done in the past:

Boys Teams –

#1 Gig Harbor 2013, 111 points

#1 North Central 2008, 134 points

#2 Joel Ferris 2009, 201 points

#3 North Central 2012, 146 points

#3 Mead 2004, 146 points

#3 Joel Ferris 2006, 162 points

#4 Mead 2005, 176 points

#5 Mead 2006, 187 points

#6 North Central 2010, 186 points

#6 North Central 2007, 220 points

#7 Kamiakin 2012, 239 points

#7 North Central 2011, 259 points

#8 North Central 2013, 231 points

#9 Eisenhower 2004, 276 points

#10 Joel Ferris 2005, 207 points

#13 Joel Ferris 2004, 297 points

#15 Gig Harbor 2011, 323 points

#15 Lewis & Clark 2010, 339 points

Boys Top-15 Individuals –

#1 Kai Wilmot, North Central 2013

#3 Tanner Anderson, North Central 2013

#3 Robbie Barany, Eisenhower 2004

#4 Joe Hardy, Seattle Prep 2012

#4 Izaic Yorks, Lakes 2011

#5 Cameron Quackenbush, Joel Ferris 2006

#5 Taylor Nepon, Mead 2005

#6 Wolfgang Beck, Gig Harbor 2013

#7 Sumner Goodwin, Lewis & Clark 2012

#7 Anthony Armstrong, Kamiakin 2011

#8 Benjamin Johnston, North Central 2009

#9 Kelly Lynch, Mead 2006

#10 Kenji Bierig, Lewis & Clark 2010

#10 Adam Thorne, Joel Ferris 2009

#10 Andrew Kimpel, North Central 2008

#11 Kelvin Daratha, Mead 2006

#11 Ben Poffenroth, Joel Ferris 2004

#12 Logan Carroll, Gig Harbor 2013

#12 Casey Adams, North Central 2010

#13 Vince Hamilton, North Central 2010

Girls Teams –

#4 Bellarmine Prep 2004, 211 points

#7 Gig Harbor 2005, 205 points

#13 Camas 2012, 294 points

#16 Glacier Peak 2011, 376 points

#21 Eastlake 2008, 485 points

#22 Bellarmine Prep 2013, 521 points

Girls Top-15 Individuals –

#1 Alexa Efraimson, Camas 2013

#2 Brie Felnagle, Bellarmine Prep 2004

#3 Katie Knight, North Central 2012

#3 Katie Knight, North Central 2011

#3 Amy-Eloise Neale, Glacier Peak 2010

#4 Alexa Efraimson, Camas 2012

#5 Amy-Eloise Neale, Glacier Peak 2011

#8 Amy-Eloise Neale, Glacier Peak 2012

#8 Katie Knight, North Central 2010

#14 Alexa EFraimson, Camas 2011

#14 Amy-Eloise Neale, Glacier Peak 2009

#14 Sandra Martinez, A.C. Davis 2008

Next is an overview of how the members of each region fared this year compared to previous years:

California Boys: Arcadia finished in the top nine for the fourth time, a feat matched only by CBA NJ, The Woodlands TX, Fayetteville-Manlius NY, York IL and North Central WA. It was also California's 15th Top-10 finish in the 10 year history of NTN/NXN, which ties the region for third most as they average 1.5 Top-10 teams per year.

California Girls: With Great Oak finishing eighth and Simi Valley ninth, this year marked the first time that California has had multiple teams in the top nine. It was an NXN-best finish for both programs, and brings the number of California Top-10 finishes to 10 which ranks California fourth in the nation.

Heartland Boys: Edina MN's 10th place finish is a school best, and only the fifth Top-10 finish for a Heartland school in meet history (according to current regional alignment). Wayzata's 15th place finish is also a second best performance for a #2 team in region history (after Stillwater 2011).

Heartland Girls: Wayzata MN's Championship is the first for not only the Heartland, but any region outside of New York. It also maintains the fact that Wayzata has never finished worse than seventh, and only four other multiple-time qualifiers can match that (Queensbury NY, Hilton NY, Carmel IN and Fayetteville-Manlius NY), although it could be noted that Fort Collins CO and Burnt Hills NY have also finished in the top eight every year as well.

Midwest Boys: Both AQ teams finished in the top six for only the second time in Midwest history (2008 had two in the top three). Only 10 other teams had managed a top-six finish in the previous nine years. The two finishes also moves the region ahead of the Southwest in terms of number of Top-10 finishes (16), though even more impressively there are nine programs that have Top-10 finishes which is best in the nation.

Midwest Girls: Carmel's fourth place finish was their third Top-5 result in as many years. Only four programs can boast having as many top five finishes: Yankton SD, Tatnall DE, Southlake Carroll TX, Saugus CA, Saratoga Springs NY and Fayetteville-Manlius NY. It also keeps intact Carmel's streak of finishing in the top seven, something they have done all four years they have qualified (see Heartland Girls entry above).

Northeast Boys: CBA's Runner-up finish is the fourth Top-5 finish for the Colts and moves them up the ranks to the fourth most consistently successful program in during the regional era behind only North Central WA, Arcadia CA and American Fork UT.

Northeast Girls: Unionville's seventh place finish is a new Pennsylvania best, and Pennsbury's 11th place finish is the second best in No. 2 team region history (behind Lincoln-Sudbury's eighth place finish in 2007). Every Pennsylvania team to ever qualify has finished in the top 11, though few have participated and only three have qualified for nationals.

Northwest Boys: Gig Harbor's championship is the second for the Northwest, from the second team, and raise the count to seven different teams with Top-10 finishes. With North Central also finishing eighth, the Northwest now has a nation-best 17 Top-10 finishes, averaging nearly two teams per year!

Northwest Girls: Bozeman's 10h place finish is a new Montana State best, beating their 2010 team's 11th place finish. Montana has now sent three teams, all having finished in the top 14, which is the best among states with a population of less than 2 million, although Delaware (6 out of 7 finishing top 15) and South Dakota (5 out of 7 finishing top 15) have qualified more teams.

New York Boys: Fayetteville-Manlius fourth place finish raises FM's total to four Top-5 finishes. Northport's eleventh place finish is the second best #2 result in New York boys history. No other program has as many top four finishes, and the five Top-10 finishes is only matched by CBA NJ (5), American Fork UT (5), York IL (6), and North Central WA (7).

New York Girls: Fayetteville-Manlius' runner-up finish is the first time a New York team has not won the national title, and Saratoga's 15th place finish is the first time a New York team has not finished in the top 13. Still, New York is the far-and-away leader among the regions, accounting for 21 Top-5 finishes and five more Top-10 finishes.

Southeast Boys: Brentwood TN made history with the first podium finish from a Southeast boys team, with the previous best finish Blacksburg VA finishing 10th last year. Severna Park edges last year's St. Xavier KY as the distinction for best placing #2 team from the region. All four teams have finished in the top 14 in the last two years, while only two teams had finished that highly the rest of NTN/NXN history (Chapel Hill 2005 and Midlothian 2006).

Southeast Girls: This year marks only the second time the region hasn't had a team finish in the top 15, but the Southeast remains third in the nation in terms of the number of Top-10 finishes (11), holding off California despite two earned by Golden State teams this year.

Southwest Boys: American Fork remains (among programs that have qualified multiple times) only the second program – North Central WA being the other – to have finished in the top eight every year they have qualified, this year being the fifth time in five years. It also brings the Southwest total to 15 Top-10 finishes, which ranks the region tied for third in the nation.

Southwest Girls: Three Southwest teams finished in the top six for the second time in NTN/NXN history (also happened in 2004), and the only other region to ever have as many teams in the top six in the same year is New York (2007, 2008 and 2012). It was a Utah-best third place finish for Davis (previous state best was Fremont's fifth place finish in 2004). Monarch set a new program-best with their fifth place finish, having previously finished 15th in 2010. The sixth place finish by Fort Collins was the seventh top-8 finish in seven tries, which is the most by any team outside of Fayetteville-Manlius NY or Saratoga Springs NY. The Southwest now has had 18 top-10 finishes in 25 attempts, second only to New York and well ahead of the next best region (Southeast).

To put performances in proper perspective at NXN, you have to find a way to factor in some kind of adjustment for each year's vastly varying course conditions. However, it's also useful to look at how the times compare without the adjustment, because there have been some years when the course conditions didn't slow down runners all that much.

Here are the current course records. Note that this also includes times from Nike Pre-Nationals from 2010 on, as that is the same course (though there were some SLIGHT changes at NXN this year):

Overall Boys Record: 15:00 – Kai Wilmot, North Central WA – 2013 NXN Nationals

Junior Boys Record: 15:09 – Tanner Anderson, North Central WA – 2013 NXN Nationals

Sophomore Boys Record: 15:19.0 – Joe Rosa, West Windsor-Plainsboro North NJ – 2008 NXN Nationals

Freshman Boys Record: 16:04 – Casey Clinger, American Fork UT – 2013 NXN Nationals

Boys Team Time: 77:53 – Gig Harbor WA – 2013 NXN Nationals

Overall Girls Record: 16:50.1 – Alexa Efraimson, Camas WA – 2013 NXN Nationals

Junior Girls Record: 16:50.1 – Alexa Efraimson, Camas WA – 2013 NXN Nationals

Sophomore Girls Record: 17:26.9 – Chelsey Sveinsson, Greenhill TX – 2008 NXN Nationals

Freshman Girls Record: 17:40.7 – Lauren Gregory, Fort Collins CO – 2013 NXN Nationals

Girls Team Time: 91:29.6– Fayetteville-Manlius NY – 2008 NXN Nationals

And here is this statistician's own opinion (based on my own ratings for the races) on the top 15

performances all-time at NXN:

Boys Individuals –

1. Lukas Verzbicas, Carl Sandburg IL 2010 (#1)

2. Edward Cheserek, St. Benedict's NJ 2010 (#2)

3. Craig Lutz, Marcus TX 2010 (#3)

4. Chris Derrick, Neuqua Valley IL 2007 (#1)

5. Colby Lowe, Southlake Carroll TX 2007 (#2)

6. Futsum Zeinasellaissie, North Central IN 2011 (#1)

7. Kai Wilmot, North Central WA 2013 (#1)

8. Sam Wharton, Tippecanoe OH 2012 (#1)

9. Ammar Moussa, Arcadia CA 2010 (#4)

10. Estevan De La Rosa, Arcadia CA 2012 (#2)

11. Reed Connor, The Woodlands TX 2008 (#1)

12. Spencer Wenck, Palmer Ridge CO 2010 (#5)

13. Craig Lutz, Marcus TX 2009 (#1)

14. Sean McNamara, York IL 2004 (#1)

15. Elias Gedyon, Loyola CA 2009 (#2)

Girls Individuals –

1. Alexa Efraimson, Camas WA 2013 (#1)

2. Elise Cranny, Niwot CO 2013 (#2)

3. Sarah Baxter, Simi Valley CA 2013 (#3)

4. Sarah Baxter, Simi Valley CA 2012 (#1)

5. Rachel Johnson, Plano Senior TX 2010 (#1)

6. Mary Cain, Bronxville NY 2012 (#2)

7. Christie Rutledge, Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2010 (#2)

8. Ramsey Kavan, Yankton SD 2004 (#1)

9. Betsy Bies, Yankton SD 2005 (#1)

10. Katie Knight, North Central WA 2012 (#3)

11. Anne St. Geme, Corona del Mar CA 2005 (#2)

12. Alexa Efraimson, Camas WA 2012 (#4)

13. Brie Felnagle, Bellarmine Prep WA 2004 (#2)

14. Chelsey Sveinsson, Greenhill TX 2008 (#1)

15. Karis Jochen, A&M Consolidated TX 2012 (#5)

Boys Teams –

1. Gig Harbor WA 2013 (#1)

2. Arcadia CA 2010 (#1)

3. Arcadia CA 2012 (#1)

4. York IL 2004 (#1)

5. CBA NJ 2013 (#2)

6. Brentwood TN 2013 (#3)

7. American Fork UT 2012 (#2)

8. Neuqua Valley IL 2007 (#1)

9. CBA NJ 2011 (#1)

10. Southlake Carroll TX 2011 (#2)

11. North Central WA 2008 (#1)

12. York IL 2008 (#2)

13. Los Alamos NM 2007 (#2)

14. Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2010 (#2)

15. North Central WA 2012 (#3)

Girls Teams –

1. Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2010 (#1)

2. Saratoga Springs NY 2004 (#1)

3. Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2012 (#1)

4. Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2009 (#1)

5. Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2008 (#1)

6. Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2011 (#1)

7. Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2007 (#1)

8. Hilton NY 2005 (#1)

9. Smoky Hill CO 2004 (#2)

10. Saratoga Springs NY 2011 (#2)

11. Saratoga Springs NY 2005 (#2)

12. Southlake Carroll TX 2005 (#3)

13. Wayzata MN 2013 (#1)

14. Fayetteville-Manlius NY 2013 (#2)

15. Saratoga Springs NY 2010 (#2)