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DyeStat - 2015 NXN Midwest Regional Preview - November 13, 2015Published by
Above Photo: US #1 Sandburg leads early in the Illinois 3A State Meet last weekend in Peoria. They will be the favorite in a loaded Boys Field in Terre Haute (Steven Koch Photo).
By Michael Newman DyeStat IL Editor
The Lavern Gibson Championship Cross Country Course just outside of Terre Haute will be the destination of many fans throughout the Midwest this Sunday afternoon. The qualifying races from the Midwest Region will take place on this fabled course. The goal for many is to be one of the top two teams or top five individuals not on a qualifying team in order to advance to the NXN Nationals in Portland on December 5.
Both the Boys and Girls Championship races are loaded. This is the deepest of all the regional fields that will be contested over the next few weeks. Boys top ranked Sandburg will be the big favorite in the Boys race looking to defend last year’s title along with punching a ticket to Portland. The Girls Race features Carmel IN looking for their sixth straight NXN trip. Naperville North IL and Yorkville IL stand in their way.
Here is a look at each of the championship races that will take place Sunday afternoon in Terre Haute.
Girls Championship Race – 1:30 PM EST
Teams – US #5 Carmel IN looks to qualify for their sixth straight NXN Finals. Even though the Greyhounds won the Indiana State Championship for the sixth straight time on October 31, they will need to have a better race to advance back to Portland. Sarah Leinheiser should be in the top five individually in this race. The key for this team is the #2 through #5 runner pack. The split at the state meet was 68 seconds with the pack 41 seconds behind Leinheiser. The week before at their semi-state race that gap was 66 seconds behind Leinheiser with a 43 second 2 to 5 split. Their average split this year has been close to 110 seconds. That will need to come down on Sunday. If Maddie Dalton and Stacey Morozov can stay within 45-50 seconds behind Leinheiser with a 40 second 2 to 5 split, Carmel could be making the trip back to Portland.
US #10 Centerville OH is coming off of winning the Ohio Division 1 State Championship last Saturday in an impressive fashion. Lainey Studebaker will be among the front runners in this race. They ran a 75 second split on their top five last week. The key to their state meet win was the 10 second split on their #2 runner Kelli Walsh and #5 runner Rachel Whitehead. The split from that pack to Studebaker was 64 seconds. If the pack can get 10 seconds closer to their #1 runner this week, Centerville could be one of the top two teams in this regional.
The field will be weakened a little with Illinois 3A State Champion Minooka and 3A 3rd place Batavia choosing not to compete. Illinois will send US #13 Naperville North who looks to bounce back from last week’s second place finish in Peoria. The Huskies did not run their best race of the year in that meet. Judy Pendergast won the Illinois 3A championship in record time for 3 miles (15:54). This team runs better when #2 runner Sarah Schmitt runs between 50 to 60 seconds behind Pendergast. Last week’s split between the two was 70 seconds. The 2 to 5 split last week was 47 seconds. The Huskies are capable of running a 40 second split off of Schmitt. The 2 to 5 pack needs to be near 60 – 63 seconds in order for Naperville North to make a return NXN championship trip.
US #16 Birmingham Seaholm MI jumped into the rankings based off of their Michigan D1 State Championship last Saturday. If they run a race similar to what they did last week at state, the possibilities are there of a top three finish. Junior Audrey Ladd has been their #1 runner all season. She responded with an 11th place finish at state. Seaholm has a tough pack up front led by Ladd. Their split at last week’s state meet on their top four was only 17 seconds. Their overall five runner split was 48 seconds. Their pack needs to start anywhere from 25th to 30th for this team to have a shot of getting into the top three.
US #19 Yorkville IL won their fifth straight Illinois 2A championship last week and did not run their best race of the year to achieve that. Yorkville typically runs a strong 5 runner pack that averages around 25 seconds. It was 67 seconds last week with their top four only separated by 41 seconds. Alexis Grandys was their #1 runner last week and should lead this team. 5th runner at state last week Nicole Greyer has been the team’s #1 runner at times this season. Watch for her to be with the group on Sunday. Yorkville did defeat Naperville North in September at the First to the Finish Invitational in Peoria. They only lost to Naperville North by 17 points at the Naperville Twilight Invitational a month later. This team is good and could find its way into the top three.
There are other schools that are capable of placing in the top five in this meet. New Trier IL finished fourth in the 3A meet last week and has a strong pack led by Caroline Fix. They will need to keep their group within 45 seconds of each other for a shot up front. Hinsdale Central IL is peaking at the right time and could have three runners in the top 30 Sunday with Reilly Revord, Annie Zaher, and Grace McCabe. Glenbard West IL did not have their best race at state finishing sixth in the 3A race. They will get low points from 3A runner-up Lindsey Payne and will need to keep their split under 90 seconds.
Columbus North IN finished third in the Indiana State Meet on this course two weeks ago led by Rachel Brougher’s 8th place finish. They will a split under 55 seconds with Brougher in the top 15 to get in the top 15. Lafayette MO won the Missouri Class 4 State Championships last week behind the 1-2 finish by Anna West and Sarah Nicholson. Both could be in the top 15 on Sunday. Their 5 runner split needs to come down in order for this team to finish in the top five. Lexington OH won the Ohio D2 State Meet behind the third place finish of Dominique Clairmonte. They had an impressive split on four of 29 seconds last week. Their 5 runner split was 83 seconds. They should finish in the top ten but could finish as high as sixth if that overall split comes down.
Individuals – This should be a great race with some of the top individuals in the Midwest facing off against each other. Judy Pendergast (Naperville North IL) is the runner to beat. She has run under 16:20 for 3 miles four times this year including an Illinois state record 15:54 last weekend in winning the 3A state meet. She should be the runner to beat in this race. She has won all but one race this year.
Sarah Leinheiser (Carmel IN) ran 17:30 two weeks ago at the Indiana State Meet to record the third fastest state time ever on the Lavern Gibson National Course. She should be among the favorites in this race. Sarah Kettel (Capital Home School MI) is the defending Midwest Regional Champion and should be among the front runners in this race. She has flown under the radar once again this year but has been tough in races she has competed in including winning the Portage Invitational (17:26 for 5k) and easily winning the Michigan Home School Championships by more than two minutes on October 31.
Sophomore Lindsey Payne (Glenbard West IL) has run under 17 minutes for 3 miles in every meet she has competed in with the exception of one. She ran 16:16 to finish second in the Illinois 3A race last week and should be among the front runners in this race. Anna Sophia Keller (St. Anthony IL) qualified for Portland last year with her third place finish in this meet. She won her third Illinois 1A State Championship last week running the third fastest time of the day on the course (16:21). She should be up front in this race. Lainey Studebaker (Centerville OH) will be among the front runners as well. She won the Ohio D1 individual race (17:39) last weekend and should be a threat up front. Brooke Wilson (Prospect IL) is an up and coming junior. She had a sensational finish to her regular season including a 3rd place finish in the IL 3A State Meet. She could be a surprise in this group. Alex Buck (Pendelton Heights IN) had a great season until her state meet. She collapsed before the finish ending up 70th. She could be a threat in the top ten.
Other Individuals to watch
Illinois – McKenzie Altmayer (Geneva), Sara Atkins (Wheaton-Warrenville South), Audrey Ernst (St. Charles North), Daly Galloway (Gardner-South Wilmington), Jocelyn Long (Barrington HS), Emma Milburn (Lake Forest), Reilly Revord (Hinsdale Central), Caitlin Shepard (Lake Zurich).
Indiana – Rachel Brougher (Columbus North), Logan Ferngren (Valparaiso), Madison Frichey (Fort Wayne Carroll), Lauren Johnson (West Lafayette), Stacey Morozov (Carmel).
Michigan – Megan Aalberts (Otsego), Lexa Barrott (Northville), Rachel Bonner (Port Huron), Tessa Fornari (Our Lady of the Lakes), Audrey Ladd (Seaholm), Jessi Larson (Saline), Jenna Magness (Grand Ledge), Madison Troy (Grandville).
Missouri – Tori Findley (Blue Springs South), Mia Jerman (Ste. Genevieve), Melissa Menghini (Rockwood Summit), Sarah Nicholson (Wildwood Lafayette), Mikayla Reed (Washington), Anna West (Wildwood Lafayette).
Ohio – Emma Bower (Olentangy Liberty), Dominique Clairmonte (Lexington), Morgan Gigandet (Troy), India Johnson (Hilliard Davidson), Abby Nichols (Archbishop Alter), Mary Kate Vaughn (Oakwood), Athena Welsh (St. Thomas Aquinas).
Boys Championship Race – 2:00 PM EST
Teams – The Boys race is loaded with six DyeStat Top 30 teams in the field along with a few traditional powers waiting in the wings. US #1 Sandburg IL is the team favorite in this meet coming off of a convincing Illinois 3A State championship last Saturday. They are powerful up front with Sean Torpy possibly in the top five along with Chris Torpy and Max Lehnhardt in the top 15. Normal top five runner Dylan Jacobs injured his hamstring at their sectional race two weeks ago. Tom Brennen and Brandan Lukas give them strong 4/5 runners. Their split last week was only 33 seconds at state making them tough to beat. Sandburg looks like a good bet to make the repeat trip to Portland.
US #10 Lafayette MO could be a threat in the top three. They will need to get their top split tighter in order to place higher. Their split off of their top four at the Chile Pepper XC Festival at the beginning of October was only 16 seconds. They won the Missouri Class 4 State Championship last week with a top four split of 54 seconds and their top five split of 79 seconds. Devin Meyrer, who won the individual state race last week, should be among the top 5 in this race. Austin Hindman and Alec Haines are good bets to finish in the top 15. Dylan Quisenberry needs to be close to the front three for this team to have a chance to qualify for Portland.
US #11 St. Ignatius OH won the Ohio D1 State Championship off of a fifth place finish by Luke Wagner and a 46 second split on their top five. They received recognition earlier in the year when they won the Trinity-Valkyre Invitational in September based off of Wagner up front and a 44 second split. Wagner will need to be in the top 15 with a split of 45-50 seconds on their top five for this team to place in the top three.
US #17 Lyons Township IL has been strong all season but have not received national recognition. They showed their strength by finishing second at the Illinois 3A State Meet last Saturday behind top finishes by Vince Zona and Danny Kilrea. They have been running a 40-45 split on their top five all season. It was 49 seconds last week. Zona and Kilrea should be in the top 20 in this meet. If Connor Madell can run close to the front two like he has this season, Lyons Township could be among the top three teams.
It could be tough for US #21 Carmel IN to make a trip back to Portland. They lost #2 runner Teddy Browning for the season due to an injury just before the start of their state series. They rebounded by winning the Indiana State Meet two weeks ago led by the individual win by Ben Veatch. One of the keys to their win was a 23 seconds split from their #2 to #5 runners. Veatch should be in the top five in this race. The gap between him and their pack at state was 58 seconds. The split on their pack is good but it needs to get within 40 seconds of Veatch in order to have a chance to place in the top three.
US #29 Rockford MI narrowly won the Michigan D1 State Meet last week by two points led by the individual win by Isaac Harding and third place finish by Cole Johnson. Both should be in the top ten in this meet. The gap on their top five last week was 74 seconds with their 3 to 5 pack split of 24 seconds. With the talent in this meet, Rockford’s split needs to be under 60 seconds in this meet with the same split from 3 to 5. That could be the ingredient of placing in the top three.
Neuqua Valley IL lost their #1 runner Connor Horn just before their state series. They responded by getting third in the 3A race last week behind a solid pack that had only a 13 second split on their top five. Scott Anderson led the team last week with a 34th place finish. They have been running this type of split all season. That pack needs to move closer to the front in order to be among the top teams.
Let’s not forget about York IL and the tradition that they have in this meet. Last year they only finished sixth in their state meet to come back to finish third at this meet. York finished fourth last week actually tied with Neuqua Valley on points. They had to move from eighth place in the final mile to accomplish that. Charlie Kern Jr. finished second in last week’s race and should be among the top five in this meet. They will need a 50 second split on their top five with Max Denning in the top 25 in order to qualifying for a trip to Portland.
Northville MI finished two points behind Rockford in last week’s Michigan D1 championship. They could be a surprise team in this meet. They ran a 31 second split on their top five. They will need Ben Cracraft or Conor Naughton to be in the top 25 for this team to place in the top five. Fishers IN has come on strong at the end of the year finishing second in the Indiana State Meet. Earlier in the year, they finished fifth behind Lyons Township at the First to the Finish Invitational in Peoria. Their split of only 20 seconds at state led by Trevor Thompson should put them among the top ten teams in this meet. Mason OH finished second to St. Ignatius last week in the Ohio D1 State Meet. They also had a tight split (20 seconds) led off of Justin Koehler. Their pack needs to move up in order to place among the top ten. Lake Zurich IL could also be a surprise. They have strength up front with Matt Pereira possibly in the top five along with Brian Griffith in the top 15. Their 82 second split from last week’s 5th place Illinois 3A state meet needs to come down in order for this team to surprise.
Individuals – Just like the team field, this individual field is also strong. It could be a close race up front led by Jon Davis (Oakwood IL). The three time 1A state champion ran 13:59.3 to win the state meet last week running just nine seconds off of Craig Virgin’s 43 year old course record. David can run off of any pace or strategy. He could be tough to beat in this race. Ben Veatch (Carmel IN) became the first runner to run under 15 minutes on the Lavern Gibson course in almost 4 years when he ran 14:59 to win the Indiana State Meet. Veatch finished third in this race a year ago and will be up front with Davis on Sunday.
Kevin Salvano (Buffalo Grove IL) ran 14:20 for 3 miles to win the Illinois 3A State Meet last week and will be among the runners challenging for the top five. Charlie Kern Jr. (York IL) has a major league kick and will be a factor in this race. He ran a final 2:09 800 to move from 12th place to only two seconds behind Salvano. Sean Torpy (Sandburg IL) and Blake Evertsen (Hinsdale Central IL) finished just behind Kern and could be among the front runners in this race. Matt Pereira (Lake Zurich IL) qualified for Portland last year. He will also be up front.
Devin Meyrer (Lafayette MO) is the Missouri Class 4 Champion and should challenge for the top five. He ran 15:06 for 5k in October at the Chile Pepper XC Festival in Arkansas. Ben Naeger (Ste. Genevieve MO) has gone undefeated this year including wins at the Forest Park XC Festival in September and the Missouri Class 3 Championships last weekend. He will be among the lead pack. Isaac Harding (Rockford MI) ran 15:10 to win the Michigan D1 state championship last week. He will be up front along with teammate Cole Johnson.
Other Individuals to Watch
Illinois – Jack Aho (Grayslake Central), Colin DeYoung (Illiana Christian), Roman Drabchuk (Hinsdale South), Brian Griffith (Lake Zurich), Dustin Macuiba (Warren Township), Vince Zona (Lyons Township).
Indiana – Curtis Eckstein (Oldenburg Academy), Gabe Fendel (Hamilton Southeastern), Brayden Law (Homestead), Julien Magallanes (Borden), Christian Noble (Mt. Vernon), Hariharan Sathyamurthy (Brownsburg), Cooper Williams (West Lafayette).
Michigan – Morgan Beadlescomb (Algonac), Enael Wolemichael (Grand Rapids Northview).
Missouri – Alec Haines (Wildwood Lafayette), Austin Hindman (Wildwood Lafayette), Ryan Parson (Farmington).
Ohio – Zach Birdsall (Fairfield), Tristan Dahmen (Maplewood), Tanner Hawley (Black River), Dustin Horter (Lakota East), Jacob Keating (Lake Catholic), Tyler Polman (Independence) Luke Wagner (St. Ignatius). More news |
