AF still No. 1, but are there cracks in the armor?

By Paul Schmitz for DyeStat

American Fork continued its impressive run for a national championship with a 42-point winning margin at the Nike Southwest regional. The effort was highlighted by an amazing 1-2-3 finish by Casey Clinger, McKay Johns and Patrick Parker. This is clearly a podium team at NXN, but the 114 team points scored by the team’s No. 5 is at least a little cause for concern. One hundred and fourteen is the exact same number that Great Oak scored in Portland to win the 2015 NXN title. There will be fewer runners in the national race than the regional race, but expect more than six points from the first trio. AF maintains its No. 1 spot partly by the fact that no other complete 1-5 team besides Neuqua Valley IL has emerged as a serious title threat. 

American Fork vs Neuqua Valley is a case study of opposing team dynamics. Rather than relying on low sticks and then hoping to hang on, the Illinois champion overwhelms opponents by packing together. That style was demonstrated at the Midwest regional, where NV’s 28-second 1-7 spread proved difficult to match. Once all of the regional races are done and are finalized, it is possible that Neuqua Valley could be picked to win NXN given how close this team is to American Fork right now.  

It is going to be a dogfight at NXR Northeast for the two automatic qualifying spots. There is a pack of teams that look to be separated by a few seconds on paper. We expect Christian Brothers Academy to be in the mix as usual and Colts Neck has been a strong regional No. 2 all year. However, Princeton has proven it can beat both CBA and CN on the right day. Staples CT and Council Rock North PA dominated their state meets and Wellesley and Lowell are the class of Massachusetts and have teams that can compete at the national level.

Teams that just missed our Top 30 cut: Lowell MA, Liverpool NY, Skyline ID, Millard West NE and College Park TX. Other teams that merited consideration: Palmer Ridge CO, Lake Zurich IL, Crater OR, Brea-Olinda CA, Trinity Prep FL, New Town ND, Cardinal Gibbons NC and Auburn AL.  

The Top 30, 11/24

1. American Fork UT

2. Neuqua Valley IL

3. Great Oak CA

4. Bozeman MT

5. Brentwood High TN

6. Wayzata MN

7. Downers Grove North IL

8. Dana Hills CA

9. St. Xavier KY

10. Christian Brothers Academy NJ

11. Davis UT

12. The Woodlands TX

13. Summit OR

14. Springville UT

15. Princeton NJ

16. Colts Neck NJ

17. Mahomet-Seymour IL

18. Timpanogos UT

19. Corning NY

20. Eleanor Roosevelt CA

21. Lyons Township IL

22. Southlake Carroll TX

23. Olympus UT

24. Council Rock PA

25. Edina MN

26. Mountain Vista CO

27. Loudoun Valley VA

28. Wellesley MA

29. North Central WA

30 (tie). Ventura CA, West Torrance CA