Figuring NXN a math problem with moving parts

By Adam Kopet of DyeStat

From a statistical standpoint, Nike Cross Nationals is a weird race. I say that as a former math teacher and former coach. When it comes to NXN, almost everything you thought you knew about cross country can be thrown out the window.

The simplest explanation is that by selecting the best teams from around the country and having them all race one other, the usual race dynamics change. State champion runners all of a sudden find themselves buried deep in the field for the first time all season. Runners who are used to racing in the middle of the pack might find themselves in the back of the field.

I had the privilege to work with Ella Donaghu at Grant OR for four years, although mostly in track. She competed at NXN three times, finishing second last year. During her sophomore and junior years, Ella's ability to run away from everyone did not work at NXN. She had to enter those races with different strategies than the ones that got her there. Rather than run from the front, Ella chose to run from behind, making up ground in the latter stages of the race.

On the frozen ground of the 2013 NXN race at Portland Meadows, she came away with a terrific ninth place finish. A year later, running on the soft grass of Glendoveer Golf Course, despite being pegged for a top-five finish, Ella only managed 10th. The race up front simply got away from her and she was left with too much ground to make up.

On the team level, it can be even more hectic. We won't see a perfect score dropped on the field as several of the competing teams have done this year in state competition. It only takes one runner's performance to dramatically impact the team score.

At this level, there is an unbelievable amount of parity among teams. In the mock race I used to create my NXN predictions this year, 36 points separate places 6-12. A similar bunching happens in the back half of the mock race. With so little separating these teams, huge swings are possible.

In addition to large swings off of minor performance fluctuations, NXN favors different types of teams than state meets and even the regional races. One example comes out of my home state of Oregon. Summit beat Sunset by seven points at NXR Northwest. But at NXN, Sunset outscores Summit by 65 points according to my mock race. This is because Sunset gains a greater advantage from having a few runners in the top quarter of the race than they lose with its fourth and fifth positions.

The hardest aspect of NXN to predict is how prepared the athletes will be for the race. For some programs, reaching NXN is not only a goal but it is expected every year. Fayetteville-Manlius NY is the best example. F-M has won nine of the last 10 years, never finishing worse than second during that span. Competing at NXN is expected. F-M enters the race on an upswing.

Meanwhile, there are teams whose best races may have already been run. There are no Alaskan teams in Portland this week, but runners there competed at state more than two months ago. More than half of all states held their championships at least four weeks before NXN. For any teams that may not have expected to get this far, or some that did, they may be running on fumes. 

I would not be surprised if the at-large teams struggle. But three of the four teams selected last seriously raced in the first two weeks of NXN qualifying and were forced to wait until last weekend to find out if they were in. Continuing to train without a clear goal in mind is difficult.

Each year provides unique prediction issues. Last year, Davis Sr CA's Fiona O'Keeffe came into NXN injured. She bravely ran the California state meet, helping her team to qualify for NXN. Her participation at Glendoveer Golf Course was a race time decision. Without her, Davis Sr would have dropped in the standings. As it turned out, with her, the team was second.

This year, Carmel IN faces a similar predicament. Sarah Leinheiser struggled at the Indiana state meet. She dropped out mid-race at NXR Midwest. On the podium with her team after the race, she wore a protective boot. In my mock race, I had Leinheiser finishing similarly to how she did at the state meet. However, if she races and shows anything resembling her earlier season form, Carmel could pull a Davis Sr-type performance and stand on the podium on Saturday.

While I cannot see the future, I can say that the athletes competing on Saturday will have a blast.

This will be my fourth NXN in person, having often opted to watch online. I saw Lukas Verzbicas and Rachel Johnson win in 2010. In 2013 I saw Kai Wilmot and Alexa Efraimson take home victories. Last year was my first covering the race as a part of DyeStat. I have been a fan, but until I saw the whole production from behind the scenes, I never knew how special Nike Cross Nationals can be. Whether first or last, all the runners will come away with an experience they will remember for a long time.

Projected order of finish:

1. Fayetteville-Manlius NY  

2. Great Oak CA  

3. Davis Senior CA  

4. Bozeman MT 

5. Carmel IN  

6. Minooka IL  

7. Edina MN  

8. Southlake Carroll TX  

9. Willmar MN  

10. Shenendehowa NY

11. Keller TX  

12. Desert Vista AZ  

13. Sunset OR  

14. Naperville North IL  

15. Blacksburg VA  

16. Palos Verdes CA  

17. Lake Braddock VA 

18. Mountain Vista CO 

19. Summit OR   

20. North Hunterdon NJ  

21. Broomfield CO  

22. Souhegan NH