It's Another Deep Year at the NCAA Championships

Published by Adam Schneider/DyeStatCOLLEGE.com Editor on November 16th, 2016

Detailed Team Breakdowns in Rankings Men | Women | Schedule

The season opened with plenty of challengers, in both of the team races, eager to for a shot to win an NCAA championship. Injuries and overtraining hurt some, while steady improvement marked squads such as the North Carolina State and Stanford women and the Northern Arizona, Colorado, Arkansas, Stanford, and Syracuse men. Other teams have shown flashes of brilliance -- the Oregon men and women, Providence women, Iona men, Portland and BYU women -- and seemed to tail off. 

The Colorado women are the only solid favorite going into the NCAA championships. In the Buffaloes' first race they ran significantly faster than last year. Three-time Rocky Mountain Shootout champion and senior Erin Clark improved by 19 seconds for the 5800m race (19:53). Runners 2-4 were faster by at least 52 seconds. The Buffaloes (93) won Pre-Nationals over Oregon (154) and Michigan (179) among others in a deep field. They dominated the Pac-12 Conference Championships over the Wisconsin Invitational winner, Washington (33 to 74). At the NCAA D1 Mountain Regional they won their fourth straight title, this time defeating the defending NCAA champion, New Mexico. They return seven from last year’s 11th place team at NCAAs: 11th place Clark, 16th place junior Kaitlyn Benner, 49th place sophomore Dani Jones, 65th place junior Melanie Nun, 97th place sophomore transfer Makena Morley plus junior Val Constien and senior Carie Verdon. Morley has moved to become the No. 4 runner this year for Colorado and freshman Sage Hurta has been No. 5. 

North Carolina State has not won a major meet this year but the Wolfpack was second at the Notre Dame Invitational to Providence and second at the Wisconsin Invitational to Washington. N.C. State has improved the most over the season after adding the Frazier sisters. Senior Erica Kemp led the Wolfpack at every meet until the ACC championships and then led the team at the NCAA D1 Southeast Region championships  

The Washington Huskies have a chance to regain their glory from the 2011 season when they were runner-up. They won the Washington invitational with Charlotte Prouse as the champion and Amy-Eloise Neale third. They won the Wisconsin invitational with Neale and Prouse finishing fourth and fifth. They were second at the Pac-12 championships as Neale took the title. They finished second at the NCAA D1 West Regional with Neale the winner again. The depth behind Neale and Prouse is an issue. 

Stanford lost its No. 1 runner Elise Cranny to a foot injury. With no expectation that she will return to run at the NCAA meet, senior Vanessa Fraser assumes the mantel in Cranny's absence. Freshmen Fiona O’Keeffe, Christina Aragon, and Ella Donaghu, along with senior Danielle Katz, made a solid top five that finished in the top 20 at a very tough NCAA D1 West Regional. 

Erin Finn may win the title for Michigan but she may not be able to pull the rest of the team to a trophy. The Wolverines won the Big Ten and Great Lakes regional titles but outside of Finn they have not run great. Providence has been led by senior Sarah Collins but she has not kept the pace she starts with. The rest of the team has not improved over the last year and did not improve during the season. Oregon’s top three -- junior Alli Cash, freshman Katie Rainsberger and senior Samantha Nadel -- could be a very good group but the Ducks have been inconsistent at 4 and 5. Alice Wright could also win for New Mexico but outside the top two the Lobos don’t have the runners to help them trophy. 

Prediction: Colorado.

The men's picture is not easy to sort out. Oregon has the individual favorite in three-time defending NCAA champion Edward Cheserek, but the rest of the team has been inconsistent otherwise. Northern Arizona, Colorado, BYU and Portland have little experience but all have a good chance to trophy with runners built to run the 10,000 meters well. 

In 2014, Northern Arizona finished fourth at the NCAA championships led by Futsum Zienasellassie. He will likely be joined by four new runners trying to help the Lumberjacks win their first team title. They won the Wisconsin Adidas Invitational, Big Sky Championships and NCAA D1 Mountain championships with a group well coached by 10th year head coach Eric Heins and the future head coach, Michael Smith. Junior Matthew Baxter has been a solid No. 2 all year long and sophomore Tyler Day has been a solid third man. Junior Cory Glines and seniors Andy Trouard and Nathan Weitz have run at the NCAA meet and have run well this year. This is a very strong team. 

Colorado steps into this weekend with a chance to win it for the third time in four years. In the last three meets with all top runners in action, the Buffaloes have had three different team leaders. Coach Mark Wetmore has a knack for getting his runners ready for NCAAs and this year could bring another victory.

The Razorbacks have their best team in years. Arkansas juniors Alex George and Jack Bruce, along with senior Frankline Tonui and sophomore Andrew Ronoh, have formed the best top four among the first three teams. They have experience at No. 5, but a championship-level run (in the 40s) may be too tall an order. 

Stanford has won trophies the past two years. Senior Sean McGorty and sophomore Grant Fisher could both run in the top 10 on Saturday, but it is uncertain whether any of their teammates will crack the top 40. Freshman Thomas Ratcliffe is the top true freshman among any of these teams and Stanford has three others that will likely contribute with previous NCAA meet experience. 

Syracuse could make a move like last year to win the title, but the competition seems deeper this year. The Orangemen only won their last two meets this year, the ACC Championships and the NCAA D1 Northeast region championship. It is likely junior Justyn Knight will have his first loss of the year at the NCAA championships, but he has run very well and could be one of Cheserek's biggest challengers. Syracuse had 1-5 gap of 17 seconds at the regional meet but the pace should be quicker at NCAAs. Syracuse could win a trophy, but it may hinge on the pace of the race. 

Iona has a very experienced group but lost at the Wisconsin Invitational and to Syracuse at the Northeast Regional. BYU has a good group and beat Syracuse earlier in the year but couldn’t keep up with Northern Arizona and Colorado at the Mountain Regional. Oregon won the Washington Invitational and Pre-Nationals but hasn’t finished higher than fourth at the Pac-12 championships or West Regional. 

Prediction: Colorado will beat Northern Arizona and Arkansas in a very tight team battle. Anyone who falters will be picked off by Stanford. If Stanford does not run well any of the next four could trophy. A fast pace does help Syracuse, Iona and Oregon.