By Joey Castagnaro for DyeStatFL

In the fifth and final edition of “The Matchup” series, we take a look at the future of Florida girls running. Five of the top ten runners in the state are freshmen. Natalie Varela, Tsion Yared, Valarie Lastra, and Alyson Churchill are the four fastest freshmen competing in the State Series. Also included in this group of all-stars is Alexandra Del Re, but she is unfortunately sitting out the rest of the season due to a stress fracture.

With all of these great freshmen, who will impress us the most at the 2016 FHSAA Cross Country State Championships? Each one of these girls has a chance to capture an individual state title, marking the start of the quest for the elusive title of “four-time individual state champion.” For Tsion, the quest would be for a 2nd ring.

If you remember, the most recent four-time individual state champions are Ashley Brasovan and Kayla Hale. When reading this article, remember that Brasovan, 2007 Foot Locker Nationals Champion, ran 17:47 at the state meet her freshman year. To be fair, Brasovan also ran 17:07 at Pre-State that year. Kayla Hale ran 18:30 at State her freshman year, finishing the season with a time of 17:58.

For anyone wondering, Brasovan and Hale were freshman in 2005. 11 years ago. Feel old now?

THE CONTENDERS

THE BATTLE

Natalie Varela

Starting at the top, Natalie Varela of Gulliver Prep is the state’s fastest freshman. Varela is ranked number one in 2A and number two in the entire state. She has run 17:46 this season.

The Raider standout has averaged 18:38 so far this year and has only lost to one person - state-leading Bailey Hertenstein. Varela has PRed by almost a minute this season after a successful eighth grade year. Included in one of her victories is a nearly 30 second win over her 2A freshman competitor, Tsion Yared. Varela also beat Valarie Lastra in that race, who finished second.

That was not the only time Varela beat Yared and Lastra, however. She also trumped the two at the flrunners Invitational earlier this season. With this, she will have confidence that she can beat Yared again going into the State Championships. 

Tsion Yared

Tsion Yared has technically already started the quest for four individual cross country titles. Yared impressively won the 2014 FHSAA 2A Cross Country Championships as just a seventh grader.

After sitting out last year’s state series, Yared is back and better than ever. She has proved that she has returned to her best form by running a PR of 17:52 at the flrunners Invitational in September, finishing 4th. With that time, she sits at number three in 2A.

Could this be the start of the first five-time individual state champion? Yared will have the chance to make progress on that title at this year’s State Championships, but she will have to beat Varela and Amanda Beach to do it.   

Valarie Lastra

Valarie Lastra of Mater Academy is the fastest girl in 3A. With her time of 18:00, she is six seconds faster than her next closest competitor and fellow frosh, Alyson Churchill.

Lastra has averaged 18:30 between all of her races this year and finished fifth at the flrunners Invitational. She is currently ranked sixth in the state, regardless of class. The Mater Academy freshman has two wins and three second place finishes this year.  

Alyson Churchill

Alyson Churchill is ranked right behind Lastra, at second in 3A with her PR of 18:06. Although Churchill has the slowest time of these four freshmen, she has the most impressive win. Churchill ran away from Amanda Beach of MCC at this year’s FSU XC Invitational, winning in 18:06.

Her only loss this year is against Fletcher’s Kayley Delay at the Katie Caples Invitational. Churchill looked very smooth at the FSU XC Invitational, and I expect her to put up a tough fight against Lastra for the title. 

THE RESULT

All of these girls have already impressed us. However, which athlete will impress us the most on November 5th? Will we get all four freshman girls under 18 minutes? Will one walk away with an individual state championship and start on the path for a perfect high school career at the state championships? 

There are a couple ways these girls can impress us.

1. Winning an individual state title.

2. Running a fast time.

We feel confident that either Lastra or Churchill will go home with an individual title. Their next closest competitor is 26 seconds behind Lastra. However, we do not want to count anyone out. The bigger question is if Varela or Yared can capture an individual title. Amanda Beach has run 17:47 and is right in the way of one of these freshman winning the title. Unlike Lastra and Churchill, Varela and Yared will have more competition on race day.

As far as who will run the fastest time, it is easy to just pick Varela, who has run faster than all the other girls. However, State is where champions are made. I think any one of these girls has the chance to be the fastest freshman in the state. 

They will have to decide that for themselves on November 5th.