Josh Hoey Looks To Keep Momentum Rolling In Breakout Season at U.S. Championships

By Oliver Hinson of DyeStat

John Nepolitan photo

Here is a look at some of the top storylines for the men competing this weekend at the USATF Outdoor Championships, Thursday through Sunday at Hayward Field.

Is Hoey Ready To Conquer U.S. 800?

The men’s 800 meters could very well be the race to watch at Hayward Field this weekend. Bryce Hoppel has won every national championship he’s competed at since 2022, but he is not the clear favorite in 2025.

That distinction now belongs to Josh Hoey, who’s making a strong case for being the breakout athlete of the year in 2025. Hoey broke the American indoor records in the 1,000 meters and 800 meters in January and February, respectively, and won a gold medal in the 800 at the World Athletics Indoor Championships in March. 

At the Monaco Diamond League on July 11, he ran 1:42.01 in the 800 to take second behind Emmanuel Wanyoni, making him the second fastest American of all-time (behind Hoppel) and the fastest in 2025.

Hoppel is still a force, though. He’s run 1:42.71 this year, and he has the edge in championship experience, which is crucial in an event like the 800. Hoey may be in better shape right now, but if he makes one wrong move in the final, Hoppel will be ready to pounce.

A lot of fans will tune in to see Donavan Brazier, too. If Hoey is the breakout athlete of the year, Brazier is certainly the comeback athlete of the year. He raced for the first time in nearly three years at the TOAD Fest in Nashville on June 7, running 1:44.70. Eight days later, he followed that up with a 1:43.80 performance at the Portland Track Festival. Those two performances were exciting, but it was his 1:43.08 at the London Diamond League that showed he was a serious contender to make Team USA.

The Brazier-Hoppel-Hoey matchup has so much intrigue. It’s a battle between past, present and future, and it is wide open. 

There’s also Cooper Lutkenhaus, the high school national record holder in the 800 with a personal best of 1:45.45. At 16, Lutkenhaus is a long shot to even make the final, but he could certainly lower his record.

Other names to watch out for include Brandon Miller, Abraham Alvarado and Shane Cohen.

Quincy Wilson Looks To Level Up In 400

Last year, when Quincy Wilson raced the 400 meters at the Olympic Trials at 16 years old, the story was simply that he was racing. The fact that he finished sixth and subsequently made the 4x400-meter relay pool for Team USA was a cherry on top.

This year, things look different. His season’s best of 44.10, which is also a World U18 best, ranks him third in the U.S., just behind Khaleb McRae and Jacory Patterson, and fourth in the world (tied with Matthew Hudson-Smith). There are real expectations on Wilson in 2025, and he appears to be peaking at just the right time — that 44.10 performance came a little over two weeks ago at the Ed Murphey Classic in Memphis on July 12.

With Paris Olympic gold medalist Quincy Hall and two-time Olympian Michael Norman out of the picture, Wilson and a few others have a chance to shake up the power balance in this event. McRae is another name to look out for; his season’s best of 43.91 is the fastest seed time in this event, and he’s been turning in some of the best races of his life recently. His 43.91 performance, which came at the Bob Vigars Classic in London on June 22, was a personal best by over half a second. He followed that up with a fourth place finish and a time of 44.45 at the Prefontaine Classic on July 5. 

Patterson is also having a breakout year. In April, he ran his first PB in nearly four years, clocking a 44.27 at the Tom Jones Memorial meet in Gainesville. He subsequently lowered that mark at the Miami Grand Slam in early May, running 43.98, the second fastest time in the US this year. 

Patterson’s consistency makes him a strong contender to not only make the team, but win the event. He’s run under 44.50 seconds five times this outdoor season, while McRae has only done so twice, and Wilson once.

The field is much deeper than these three, though. Three of Wilson’s teammates from the Team USA 4x400 squad are in the field: Vernon Norwood, Chris Bailey and Bryce Deadmon. 

All three are rounding into shape at the right time. Bailey took second at the Prefontaine Classic on July 5, beating McRae and Patterson with a time of 44.15 seconds, a personal best. Norwood ran a season’s best 44.34 at the London Diamond League on July 19, while Deadmon ran 44.39 at the Ed Murphey Classic, taking second to Wilson.

With all six of these guys, there’s a fairly wide spectrum of experience and establishment. Norwood and Deadmon are veterans who have made their fair share of national teams, while McRae and Wilson are still trying to break onto the scene at the senior level. No one has a clear advantage in this event, which makes it all the more exciting. It’s going to come down to execution, and in all likelihood, it’s going to be close.

As Always, A Stacked Men’s 1,500

All season long, speculation about this marquee event has raged. Are the college kids for real? Can Yared Nuguse take back the crown from Cole Hocker? Will Hocker ever win a 1,500 again?

No distance event has given the U.S. more excitement than the 1,500 in recent years, and after a 1-3-5 finish by Hocker, Nuguse and Hobbs Kessler at the Paris Olympics, fans are growing accustomed to success on the global level. Everyone wants a shot at making this team, which means it’s going to be one of the most difficult teams to make.

Hocker, Nuguse and Kessler are all in, but they are by no means locks to qualify for Tokyo. After throwing down stellar performances in the indoor season, which was uncharacteristically record-happy for U.S. athletes, none of the three have won 1,500 meters or mile races in the outdoor season. Nuguse did manage second in the Bowerman Mile at the Prefontaine Classic, running 3:45.95, while Hocker was fourth (3:47.43) and Kessler was well back in 10th (3:48.32).

Obviously, their fitness is still intact. No one doubts that. In a paced race, the three of them would likely sweep the podium. National championship meets are about racing, though, and that introduces some wrinkles. Different strategies will favor different athletes.

Nuguse will need to find a balance between a sit-and-kick approach and pure frontrunning. The latter is more likely to be beneficial for him considering the closing speed of the field. If he’s in an all-out sprint with Hocker with 100 meters to go, Hocker is likely going to win. 

However, he might be reluctant to open aggressively considering his unfortunate finish in the Bowerman Mile at the Pre Classic. After dropping France’s Azeddine Habz and opening up a substantial lead in the last lap, he fell apart in the last 100 meters, getting pipped by the Netherlands’ Niels Laros at the line. Granted, Nuguse was chasing the world record in that race, which he simply was not fit enough to do.

This time around, his best bet is to set a hard but not blistering pace and hopefully have more in the tank for the last 200. 

If the final goes sub-3:30, which is not out of the question, Nuguse has the advantage. If it’s a few seconds slower, look for Hocker, who will likely be somewhere in the middle of the pack with half a lap to go. If he has room to make a move around the bend, he will, and it will be furious.

What about a purely tactical race, though? It’s unlikely, but if the pace hovers somewhere around 3:35, a few more names could be in the mix. Kessler has run 1:43.64 in the 800, and a few of the newly minted pros — Nathan Green (Adidas) and Ethan Strand (Nike) — both displayed tremendous closing speed in their most recent collegiate seasons. Green closed in 51 seconds to win the NCAA 1,500 meter final, which was one of the closest races in recent memory, while Strand finished second, barely running out of room in the final stretch. 

Strand also looked dominant in the B section of the mile at the Pre Classic, winning with a time of 3:48.86. Even if he and Green fail to make the team, their performances will show a lot about where they stand in the future of American distance running.

Other top names to look out for include Jonah Koech and collegians Liam Murphy and Gary Martin.

After Noah Lyles, Who Is Fastest?

On paper, it would be silly to doubt Noah Lyles, who is the reigning world champion and Olympic champion in the men's 100 meters. If he does race through the final, he’s clearly the favorite — but that is an if.

Because of his world champion status, Lyles has a bye to Tokyo, so he doesn’t have to prove anything this weekend. If he wants to win a title for the sake of winning a title, he can. If he doesn’t, the opportunities open up for many others. 

The two frontrunners are likely Trayvon Bromell and Kenny Bednarek, both of whom have plenty of championship experience. 

Bromell is experiencing a resurgence this season. After struggling with injuries in 2023 and 2024, he has returned to form in a major way, breaking 10 seconds in all three of his 100-meter races. Bednarek also has plenty of momentum; he swept all six of his races on the Grand Slam circuit, setting season’s bests of 9.86 and 19.84 in the 100 and 200 (he also ran a 9.79 100 with +2.4 m/s wind).

Jordan Anthony of Arkansas is another name to consider. He won the NCAA title in the 100 meters and ran 9.75, barely wind-aided (+2.1 m/s), at the NCAA West Regional. 

High school national record holder Tate Taylor is also in the field. Taylor ran 9.92 with legal wind at the Texas state championship meet in May and won the 100 meters at Nike Outdoor Nationals. He earned the Gatorade National Player of the Year honor in late June.

Other contenders include Christian Coleman, Brandon Hicklin, Kyree King, Courtney Lindsey and T’Mars McCallum. Fred Kerley, the bronze medalist at the Paris Olympics, is a late scratch. 

Shelby McEwen In Rarified Air

Shelby McEwen has developed a pattern over the last few years. In even years, he wins the national championship. In odd years, he doesn’t. 

In 2021, he took third at the Olympic Trials behind JuVaughn Harrison and Darryl Sullivan, Jr., jumping 2.30 meters (7-6.50). The next year, he won with a jump of 2.33. In 2023, he took second — again behind Harrison — jumping 2.26. In 2024, he won at the Olympic Trials, jumping 2.30.

He will look to discontinue that odd-even habit this week and try to win back-to-back national titles.

McEwen has competed sparingly this year, only jumping in five meets before this weekend. He hasn’t cleared 2.30 meters since the Paris Olympics, and his season’s best is 2.26, which ranks him ninth in the country this year. This isn’t necessarily out of character for McEwen — he tends to peak later in the season, when it counts — but it’s certainly worth questioning. He’s going to need to have the best performance of his season this weekend if he wants to win.

Naturally, he’ll be going up against Harrison. The Paris Olympian and 2023 World Championships silver medalist has also had a relatively quiet season, only competing in six meets so far. He seems to be finding his rhythm lately, though; he jumped a season’s best 2.27 meters at the Monaco Diamond League on July 11. 

All of the top three from the USATF Indoor Championships — Vernon Turner, Elijah Kosiba and Earnest Sears — are entered, too. So is NCAA indoor champion Tyus Wilson from Nebraska, whose season’s best of 2.29 meters is the highest of anyone in the field. 

Rudy Winkler Riding Momentum In Hammer

Rudy Winkler is definitely the leading man in the hammer throw this year. Winkler put the world on notice with his performance at the Prefontaine Classic, breaking the American record and claiming the world lead with a throw of 83.16 meters (272-10). No other American has thrown over 79 meters this year, and as long as he gets a few marks on the board without fouling, he should have an easy road to victory.

The better question is, who will claim the other two spots? Three athletes are between 78.15 meters and 78.55 meters: Daniel Haugh, Tyler Williams and Trey Knight. Haugh is at the top of that spectrum, but he recently lost to Knight at the LA Throws Cup on July 11. Williams, meanwhile, hasn’t thrown over 75 meters since May. In his most recent competition, the Jerome Classic in Bernaby, Canada on July 15, he finished sixth with a throw of only 70.79 meters.

Tripp Piperi, Roger Steen Shaking Up Shot Put

World record holder Ryan Crouser has a bye to the World Championships and is not competing due to an elbow injury. Without him in the mix, the competition is definitely not open and shut. 

Joe Kovacs, the second-best performer of all time, is the favorite. He got off to a relatively slow start this year, but he broke through with a win and a world-leading throw of 22.48 meters at the Prefontaine Classic. 

Tripp Piperi and Roger Steen, though, are both contenders. They went 1-2 at the USATF Indoor Championships and 2-3 at the World Indoor Championships (Steen was second both times). They each set personal bests at the Pre Classic; Steen finished second with a throw of 22.11 meters (73-9), while Piperi was fourth with a throw of 22.09 meters (72-5.75).

Neither Piperi nor Steen made the Olympic team last year — Crouser and Kovacs went 1-2 at the Trials, followed by Payton Otterdahl in third — and Steen has never made a World Outdoor Championships squad. This could be the best chance for each of them to do damage on the global stage.

Otterdahl is also in the field. He’s thrown 21.92 meters this year, but he took sixth at the Pre Classic, finishing behind both Piperi and Steen.

Kendricks, Miller, Lightfoot Battle For Pole Vault Supremacy

The last time someone other than Sam Kendricks or Chris Nilsen won a U.S. outdoor title in the pole vault was 2013. Heading into this week, it seemed unlikely that this streak would change, but Nilsen announced Tuesday that he is not competing this weekend due to injury. 

Kendricks is certainly capable of winning another U.S. title, which would be his eighth. He was the silver medalist at the Paris Olympics last year, and his best mark in 2025 is 5.90 meters (19-4.25), which puts him 11th in the world. He’s competed at six Diamond League meets this year and has recorded top 10 finishes in all of them. 

However, he’s not a clear favorite. No one is, really.

Austin Miller has been steadily improving over the last few years, and without Nilsen in the field, he has the highest season’s best of anyone at 5.91m (19-4.75). However, Kendricks is 3-1 against him in head-to-head competition this year.

KC Lightfoot is the American record holder and can’t be counted out, but he has struggled this season; so far, he hasn’t cleared 5.75 meters.

In all likelihood, it will come down to Kendricks, Miller or Lightfoot. Someone like Jacob Wooten or Matt Ludwig could sneak in, but a lot would have to go right for them while a lot would have to go wrong for the top three.

5,000 Meters Deep

It seems a little ridiculous to say, but at least two sub-13 runners from the United States will not make the World Championship team for the 5,000 meters. Five U.S. athletes have broken the 13-minute this season — Grant Fisher, Nico Young, Graham Blanks, Cole Hocker and Cooper Teare — and they are all entered in this event. Several more are on the cusp of 13.

Yes, it’s possible that all of these men go to Tokyo — aside from Teare, they are all entered in multiple events — but the notion that 12:50 fitness is what it takes to make this team is more than a little shocking.

There are likely two shoo-ins, and the first is Fisher. Barring some extremely unusual circumstances, he should easily qualify for Tokyo, and no one that’s been paying attention to the sport during this decade would disagree with that. He’s always been a few steps ahead in terms of sheer endurance, and even his finishing speed, somewhat of a limiter for him on the global stage earlier in his career, has mightily improved. His 3:48.29 mile at the Prefontaine Classic was proof.

Young should also make the team without much struggle. He is the best up-and-coming distance runner in America — he broke the American record outdoors — and his first full season as a professional has exceeded expectations. He’s broken 13 minutes three times in 2025, and in his record-breaking performance, a 12:45.27 win at the Oslo Diamond League, he defeated a slew of the best distance runners in the world, including Ethiopians Biniam Mehary, Hagos Gebhriwet and Yomif Kejelcha. 

The third spot is somewhat up for grabs. Blanks, like Young, has been tearing up the pro circuit in his first season, and he’s a gutsy, smart racer (makes sense for a Harvard grad). He’s run under 12:50 twice this year, and he beat Young at the Paris Diamond League. Look for him to make a calculated move in the last few laps.

Teare is also an intriguing pick. Unlike the other four sub-13:00 guys, he’ll be fresh heading into the 5,000, and with only a four-day schedule, that freshness could make a difference. So far, his season has been somewhat of a mixed bag; he’s broken 13 twice, but he’s not put himself at the same level as Fisher, Young and Blanks. His 12:57.05 season’s best at the Oslo Diamond League got him 13th place in the race, and he finished about 10 seconds behind Young and Blanks.

The 10,000 is going to need to be a blistering race for Teare to have a real shot at making the team in the 5,000. If he does, it will be his second national team; he won the 1,500 at USAs in 2022.

Behind those four, a smattering of other big names are also in the field. Hocker will likely have three rounds of the 1,500 in his legs, but he’s never one to be counted out. Keep an eye out for Woody Kincaid, Ahmed Muhumed returning to his home state, and Morgan Beadlescomb, too.

Unpredictable Men’s 110-Meter Hurdles

The 110=meter hurdles looks different this year. None of the three Americans that made the Olympic team last year — Grant Holloway, Daniel Roberts and Freddie Crittenden — have looked as sharp this outdoor season as they have in recent years.

Holloway is, of course, Holloway, and he could absolutely win the title if he wanted to, but that’s a big if. He already has a bye to the World Championships because of his reigning world champion status, so he doesn’t need to run at all. In 2022 and 2023, both years in which he had the bye, he did not run in the final.

What this means is that there is a very real chance that the top three Americans this year are completely different from last year.

Cordell Tinch appears to be the man to beat, having run 12.87, which ranks him fourth all-time. He’s been consistent on the Diamond League circuit this summer, winning two races and getting second in two others. That consistency could be the key to success this weekend; he will need to be able to run 13.10 at will, and he’s shown the ability to do so. 

However, he’s been beaten this year by a number of top Americans, like Trey Cunningham, Dylan Beard, Jamal Britt and Crittenden. All four of those guys have shown flashes of brilliance this year, and so has Ja’Kobe Tharp, the NCAA champion for Auburn. 

This event will be a battle. In all likelihood, at least one of te top contenders won't even make the final. This is one of the deepest fields in a long time — the top four Americans are also the top four in the world — but it has to be whittled down to three spots. The final will be the last event of the meet, and it will be quite a show.