Loudoun Valley, F-M, Great Oak All In The Hunt

By Paul Schmitz of DyeStat

Loudoun Valley VA was the top-ranked team from wire to wire in 2017 and the Vikings have a chance to match that feat in 2018. Loudoun Valley (aka Purcellville) gets the pick to repeat, but this year should be much closer than their record-breaking 70-point win at NXN last year.

Close on the heels of the defending champions are the teams from Fayetteville-Manlius NY and Great Oak CA. In virtual runs of the race, each of these three teams project to have a chance at a title. The difference-maker for Loudoun Valley is its depth. Conditions at Glendoveer Golf Course could be challenging with rain in Portland this week. With seven runners capable of scoring on a team that can win the title, Loudoun Valley can best cope with conditions where many runners will not be at their best. 

The road to victory for Fayetteville-Manlius must include all five of its top runners. F-M matches Loudoun Valley 1-5 but does not have the margin for error that LV does. If both teams run well, it could come down to the difference of just a few points. 

The road to victory for Great Oak CA depends upon the translation of its team speed from the packed courses in California to the soft footing in Portland. Can the front line of Great Oak stay with Sam Affolder and Jacob Hunter as those two push the pace up front? If the Great Oak pack is within sight of LV’s 1-2, GO could overwhelm the field at the finish line with its solid pack 1-7 and take home a title.

The next tier runs from No. 4 West Ranch CA to No. 10 La Costa Canyon CA. Any of these teams are capable of cracking the top four. Again, the teams from California project high in this race. Each of the three California teams in this tier deserve to be in this race (Newbury Park and La Costa Canyon took two of the four at-large bids) and all are capable of at least a top-10 finish with a solid race. Those teams are getting the benefit of the doubt that their times will translate to conditions that might not be familiar to them. 

The big mix comes from the teams between 11-19. Each year there are a couple “happy to be here” teams that are enjoying the week and not attacking this day like some of the others. It doesn’t take much to slide right to the bottom of this competitive race with an off day. The projections between those teams is razor thin and one off day from one runner could be the difference of several spots in a race this tight.

For teams predicted to finish at the bottom - especially to the first-time NXN team from my home state, Mounds View MN: don’t take these predictions too seriously! Stick to your pack running and pick off many guys off as you can. You deserve to be there and every few seconds for your pack can mean a few places on the final scoreboard. 

2018 NXN predicted order of finish

1. Loudoun Valley VA (Purcellville) 136

2. Fayetteville-Manlius NY (Manlius) 138

3. Great Oak CA (Temecula) 143

4. West Ranch CA (Stevenson Ranch) 206

5. Dakota Ridge CO (Littleton) 218

6. Newbury Park CA (Newbury Park) 228

7. The Bolles School FL (Duval) 262

8. Christian Brothers Academy NJ (Lincroft) 264

9. American Fork UT (American Fork) 267

10. La Costa Canyon CA (La Costa) 271

11. Kamiakin WA (West Kennewick) 313

12. Mountain Vista CO (Denver) 315

13. Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake NY (Burnt Hills) 333

14. Hersey IL (Arlington) 339

15. Wheaton Warrenville South IL (Wheaton South) 342

16. Lewis and Clark WA (Central Spokane) 343

17. Bishop Hendricken RI (Warwick) 347

18. Central Valley WA (Veradale) 349

19. Southlake Carroll TX (Carroll) 394

20. Mounds View MN (Mounds View) 398

21. Middleton WI (Middleton) 403

22. El Paso Eastwood TX (Eastwood) 421