A Japanese Winner? A Women's Course Record? Both Could Happen at the 2019 Tokyo Marathon

By Adam Kopet of DyeStat

The Tokyo Marathon is set for Sunday as the fourth stop on the Abbott World Marathon Majors Series XII. The two fastest men in the field have withdrawn, but that fact only adds further intrigue to the race.

The race begins at 7:10pm EST Saturday. Here are some of the top storylines for the event.

1. The men's race could feature a Japanese winner

Japan has long been a force in the marathon, showing depth that few countries can match. However, depth does not necessarily equate to speed or individual victories. That has been the case for Japan, which has produced a single winner of an Abbott World Marathon Majors race. That happened last year at the Boston Marathon when Yuki Kawauchi won in extreme weather conditions.

The 2019 edition of the Tokyo Marathon could provide the second Japanese winner of a World Marathon Major. Suguru Osako, who trains in the U.S. with the Nike Oregon Project, broke the Japanese national record at the 2018 Chicago Marathon, running 2:05:50 for third.

With Kenenisa Bekele and Marius Kipserum out of the race, the door has opened for Osako, assuming he has a good race. His margin for winning is slim, but the chance is there and worthy of following. He will certainly have the home crowd behind him.

2. Defending champion Dickson Chumba a strong contender to repeat

Dickson Chumba won the 2018 Tokyo Marathon in 2:05:30. The Kenyan has won twice in Tokyo and has run the race each of the last five years. He has never finished worse than third.

When it comes to the Tokyo Marathon, it seems like Chumba never has a bad race. However, he faces several strong challengers. In addition to Osako, names to watch for are Birhanu Legese of Ethiopia, El Hassan El Abbassi of Bahrain, Seifu Tura of Ethiopia and Nobert Kigen of Kenya.

Legese has the fastest time in the field with the 2:04:15 he ran for sixth place at the 2018 Dubai Marathon, but he was 10th in his last outing at the Chicago Marathon. His compatriot, Tura, finished one spot back in Dubai, running 2:04:44. However, that was Tura's only time under 2:09 in his career, including several marathon wins around the world.

El Abbassi and Kigen could also be up for the challenge in Tokyo, however, both athletes are coming off December marathons. They both competed in Valencia three months ago, running fast times of 2:04:43 and 2:05:22, respectively. The big question is whether they allotted enough time to recover and properly train for Tokyo since then.

El Abbassi admitted at the pre-race press conference Friday that he has dealt with pain in recent days, but he still expects to be race ready come Sunday.

3. Matt Llano is the only U.S. elite entrant in Tokyo

In 2018, Amy Cragg went to Tokyo chasing a personal best. She got just that, running 2:21:42, placing her fifth on the American all-time performer list.

This year, Matt Llano is the only American entrant in the elite field. He is coming off a second place finish at the USATF Marathon Championships in December where he ran 2:12:59. He holds a personal best 2:12:28 from the 2015 Berlin Marathon where he finished 13th.

Llano is unlikely to challenge for the win. However, the fast Tokyo course could give him a personal best.

4. Japanese depth on display

In addition to Osako, the Tokyo Marathon features a strong field of domestic runners. In the past, Japanese athletes have raced over their heads, going out hard and hoping they can hold on.

This year's Tokyo Marathon could be more of the same. With a total of four men having run under 2:09, as well as three more who have run around 2:10, there is a strong chance one of those athletes breaks out. The chance for someone other than Osako to win is low, but the race would certainly prove to be entertaining.

Athletes to watch include Ryo Kiname (2:08:08), Shogo Nakamura (2:08:16), Yuki Sato (2:08:58), Jo Fukuda (2:09:52), Shohei Otsuka (2:10:12) and Daichi Kamino (2:10:18).

When Kawauchi won in Boston last year, he did so spending time with a sizable lead in the early stages of the race. In his case, he was able to couple the fast early start with a strong finish to come away as the winner in the cold, rain and wind. Could something similar happen in Tokyo?

5. Course record possibilities in women's race

The women's course record in Tokyo stands at 2:19:47. That was run in 2017, the first year of a new course that was designed to be faster. Last year's winner, Birhane Dibaba of Ethiopia, missed the record by four seconds.

This year, four women enter the race with personal bests faster than the course record. Ruti Aga of Ethiopia may be most notable, having run 2:18:34 for second place at the 2018 Berlin Marathon.

Also of note are Boru Feyse Tadese and Yebrgual Melese of Ethiopia. They finished second and third at the 2018 Dubai Marathon, running 2:19:30 and 2:19:36.

6. Florence Kiplagat can never be overlooked

Florence Kiplagat of Kenya is the fourth woman in the field to have run under the Tokyo Marathon course record. She did it back in 2011 when she won the Berlin Marathon in 2:19:44, so it’s been a while.

Kiplagat's strength has been her consistency. She has finished on the podium of seven Abbott World Marathon Majors marathons, including wins in Berlin, Chicago and London.

The past few years have been less strong for Kiplagat, although she still finished fourth at last year's Chicago Marathon. Nonetheless, experience could propel her to another World Marathon Majors win.

Another athlete to watch who has some similarities to Kiplagat is Rose Chelimo of Bahrain. She too has a World Marathon Majors win from the 2017 IAAF World Outdoor Championships.

7. Joan Chelimo Melly's marathon debut

The Tokyo Marathon will serve as the debut marathon for Kenya's Joan Chelimo Melly. Until now, she has primarily been known for her exploits over the half marathon distance. Now she is stepping up to the full distance.

Melly moved up to fourth on the all-time half marathon performer list last year when she won the Prague Half Marathon in 1:05:04. She also ran fast times at the RAK Half Marathon and the Copenhagen Half Marathon before returning to the top of the podium at the B.A.A. Boston Half Marathon.

8. One Japanese woman stands out from the field

The depth of the Japanese women in the Tokyo Marathon is not as strong as it is for the men. However, Honami Maeda leads the home team with her 2:23:48 that she ran in Osaka last year.

Maeda also finished a strong seventh at the 2018 Berlin Marathon. At 22, she does not have the experience of her compatriots, but she has already tested herself on the international field and done well. This could be the opportunity to make another leap forward.

9. The weather

As with any outdoor race, the weather can play a significant role. That was most evident at the 2018 Boston Marathon where cold temperatures, strong winds and heavy rain greatly affected athletes on the course.

Weather.com calls for temperatures between 47 and 51 degrees Fahrenheit with low winds. Rain is expected, but may hold off until the afternoon, after the elite athletes have finished. Humidity is expected to be about 63 percent.

If the rain does hold off, the athletes will have good conditions to compete and possibly chase fast times. If not, expect the races to slow somewhat.