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National Individual Rankings Final - 12/19 Boys - XC - Dyestat

Published by
DyeStat   on Dec 20 2013, 03:58 AM

 

 

 

NATIONAL XC TEAMS REGIONAL XC TEAMS NATIONAL XC INDIVIDUALS

 

DyeStat Individual Rankings - Top 100 Boys

2013 Release Dates: Preseason - Sept 26 - Oct 10 - Oct 24 - Nov 7 - Nov 21
 - Dec 5 - Dec 19
by Doug Binder, Dyestat Editor

Fisher stands alone with undefeated season

* Note: These rankings take into account the championship portion of the season, including state meets and beyond. The national championship meets carried the most weight.

 

Top 100 Boys

 

1 – Grant Fisher, jr, Grand Blanc (Michigan): Foot Locker champion, undefeated.

2 – Kai Wilmot, sr, North Central (Washington): NXN champion.

3 – John Dressel, jr, Mt. Spokane (Washington): Foot Locker runner-up.

4 – Matthew Maton, jr, Summit (Oregon): Foot Locker third place.

5 – Blake Haney, sr, Stockdale (California): NXN runner-up.

6 – Tanner Anderson, jr, North Cental (Washington): NXN third place.

7 – Cerake Geberkidane, sr, Denver North (Colorado): NXN fourth place.

8 – Mickey Burke, sr, Rush-Henrietta (New York): Foot Locker fourth place.

9 – Joe Hardy, sr, Seattle Prep (Washington): Foot Locker fifth place.

10 – Estevan De La Rosa, sr, Arcadia (California): NXN fifth place.

11 – Aaron Templeton, sr, Hardin Valley (Tennessee): Foot Locker ninth place.

12 – Elijah Armstrong, jr, Pocatello (Idaho): Foot Locker sixth place.

13 – Wolfgang Beck, sr, Gig Harbor (Washington): NXN sixth place.

14 – Conner Mantz, jr, Sky View (Utah): Foot Locker seventh place.

15 – Connor McMillan, sr, American Fork (Utah): NXN seventh place.

16 – Tal Braude, sr, Torrey Pines (California): CIF Div 1 champion.

17 – Blair Hurlock, sr, De La Salle (California): Foot Locker eighth place.

18 – Taylor Caldwell, sr, Brentwood (Tennessee): NXN eighth place.

19 – Alan Yoho, sr, Flintridge Prep (California): NXN ninth place.

20 – Mark Hadley, sr, Boardman (Ohio): Ohio Div 1 champion.

21 – Obsa Ali, sr, Richfield (Minnesota): NXN 10th place.

22 – Tony Russell, sr, West Chester Henderson (Pennsylvania): NXN 11th place.

23 – Josef Holt-Andrews, sr, Telstar (Maine): Foot Locker 10th place.

24 – Logan Carroll, sr, Gig Harbor (Washington): NXN 12th place.

25 – Bryce Millar, jr, Fayetteville-Manlius (New York): New York Class A champion.

26 – Mike McClemens, sr, Christian Brothers (New Jersey): NXN 14th place.

27 – Addison DeHaven, sr, Brookings (South Dakota): NXN 17th, Foot Locker 18th place.

28 – Jesse Reiser, jr, McHenry (Illinois): NXN 13th, Foot Locker 33rd place.

29 – Alex Ostberg, jr, Darien (Connecticut): Foot Locker 11th place

30 – Garrett Corcoran, sr, Villa Park (California): Foot Locker 14th place.

31 – Michael Hall, sr, St. Xavier (Ohio): NXN 15th place.

32 – Mike Brannigan, jr, Northport (New York): NXN NY regional champ.

33 – Trevor Reinhart, jr, Marin Academy (California): Foot Locker 12th place.  

34 – Thomas Pollard, jr, Gilbert (Iowa): Foot Locker 13th place.

35 – Reilly Bloomer, sr, South Eugene (Oregon): NXN 18th place.

36 – Austin Tamagno, soph, Brea Olinda (California): NXN 19th place.

37 – Levi Thomet, Kodiak (Alaska): Foot Locker 16th place.

38 – Tristan Peloquin, jr, Gig Harbor (Washington): NXN 16th place.

39 – Liam Mullett, sr, Pingry (New Jersey ): Foot Locker 15th place.

40 – Zach Alhamra, jr, Pine Creek (Colorado): NXN 20th place.

41 – TJ Hornberger, sr, Lake Shore (New York): NXN 21st place.

42 – Aidan Goltra, sr, Campolindo (California): NXN 23rd place.

43 – Jacob Pickle, sr, Southlake Carroll (Texas): NXN 22nd place.

44 – Bailey Roth, sr, Coronado (Colorado): NXN 24th place.

45 – Stuart McNutt, sr, Blue Valley West (Kansas): NXN 25th place.

46 – Toby Hardwick, sr, Newark (Ohio): Foot Locker 17th place.

47 – Patrick Perrier, sr, O’Fallon (Illinois): Illinois AAA champion.

48 – Chandler Austin, sr, Boone (Iowa): NXN 29th place.

49 – Dan Curts, sr, Ellsworth (Maine): Foot Locker 19th place.

50 – Coleman Churitch, sr, Brentwood (Tennessee): NXN 26th place.

51 - Evan Stifel, sr, St. Xavier (Ohio): NXN 27th place.

52 – Christian Alvarado, Fairfield Prep (Connecticut): Foot Locker 20th place.

53 – Jackson Bertoli, sr, Terre Haute (Indiana): Indiana state champion.

54 – Ben Huffman, sr, Providence Day (North Carolina): Foot Locker 22nd place.

55 – Alec Thomas, sr, Brentwood (Tennessee): Tennessee 3A runner-up.

56 – Jacob Shiohira, jr, Bentonville (Arkansas): NXN South champ.

57 – Ben Veatch, soph, Carmel (Indiana): NXN 28th place.  

58 – Andrew Rafla, sr, Timberline (Idaho): NXN Northwest third place.

59 – Zack Smith, sr, Downers Grove North (Illinois): NXN 30th place.

60 – Zach Panning, sr, Concordia Lutheran (Indiana): NXN 31st place.

61 – Austin Sprague, sr, St. Pius X (Georgia): NXN 32nd place.

62 – Thomas O’Neill, sr, Middletown North (New Jersey): NXN 33rd place.

63 – Connor Olson, jr, Wayzata (Minnesota): NXN 34th place.

64 – Trevor Hopper, sr, Ridgefield (Connecticut): New Englands champion.

65 – Ryan Robinson, jr, Waterford Mott (Michigan): Foot Locker 21st place.

66 – Kramer Morton, sr, Alta (Utah): Foot Locker 23rd place.

67 – David Luna, sr, Indio (California): CIF Div 3 runner-up.

68 – Frank Lara, sr, Strake Jesuit (Texas): Texas 5A champ, NXN 39th, Foot Locker 38th.

69 – Nathan Mroz, sr, York (Illinois): NXN 35th place.

70 – Andrew Berge’, sr, Fayetteville-Manlius (New York): NXN 36th place.

71 – Louis Corgliano, sr, Hammonton (New Jersey): Foot Locker 24th place.

72 – Ian Milder, sr, Mount Tabor (North Carolina): Foot Locker 25th place.

73 – Ross Wilson, sr, Council Rock North (Pennsylvania): Foot Locker 26th place.

74 – Tai Dinger, sr, St. Albans (D.C.): Foot Locker 27th place.

75 – Albert Meier, sr, Boone (Iowa): NXN 38th place.

76 – Kyle Thompson, sr, Central Catholic (Oregon): NXN 40th place.

77 – Louis Colson, sr, Edison (Virginia): Virginia 5A champion, Foot Locker 32nd place.

78 – Christian Stafford, sr, Pembroke (Massachusetts): NXN 41st place.

79 – Zac Jacklin, jr, American Fork (Utah): NXN SW third place.

80 – Dylan Tarpey, sr, Freehold (New Jersey): NJ Meet of Champs runner-up.

81 – Tom Rooney, sr, Christian Brothers (New Jersey): NXN 42nd place.

82 – Fred Huxham, sr, Redwood (California): CIF Div 3 fourth place.

83 – Brent Demarest, sr, Porter-Gaud (South Carolina): Foot Locker 28th place.

84 – Ben Barrett, jr, Norman North (Oklahoma): Foot Locker 29th, NXN 105th.

85 – Sukhi Khosla, jr, Leon (Florida): Florida state champion.

86 – Patrick Sheehan, sr, Lake Norman (North Carolina): Foot Locker 30th place.

87 – Noah Kauppila, sr, Marquette (Missouri): Foot Locker 39th place.

88 – Brian Kettle, sr, Milford (Michigan): Michigan runner-up.

89 – Ryan Forsyth, sr, Severna Park (Maryland): Maryland state champion.

90 – Kyle Kroon, sr, Toms River South (New Jersey): NJ Meet of Champs fourth place.

91 – Tyler Bennett, sr, Fort Myers (Florida): Foot Locker 31st place.

92 – Mackenzie Haight, sr, George Marshall (Virginia): Foot Locker 34th place.

93 – David Dalton, sr, Greenwood Community (Indiana): Foot Locker 35th place.

94 – Jonah Henry, sr, Laramie (Wyoming): NXN Northwest 10th, state champ.

95 – Andrew Brewer, sr, Bingham (Utah): NXN Southwest fourth place.

96 – Brian Cook, sr, Pearl River (New York): NY Feds champ.

97 - Scott Meehan, sr, Pope John XXIII (New Jersey): Foot Locker 36th place.

98 – Clayson Shumway, sr, Lone Peak (Utah): Utah 5A runner-up; NXN SW eighth place.

99 – Colin Tierney, sr, Bishop Hendricken (Rhode Island): State champion, New Englands fifth place.

100 – Olin Hacker, jr, Madison West (Wisconsin): Wisconsin state champ; Foot Locker Midwest 12th place.

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32 comment(s)  
bhamrunner
I’m a little late with this but I want to add my 2 cents regarding who should be the top ranked boy this year, basically Fisher or Wilmot. I specifically want to address Watchout’s comparison of their performances in their respective state meets. Here are my points:
- Watchout described MIS as “flat/fast/gently curving/wide open course” which is basically correct. However, this year the course was muddy from three days of rain, had uneven footing over large portions of the course, and even had several sandy areas. I am not familiar with the Sun Willows course but it appears that the vast majority of the course is on golf course fairways which should provide good footing if it is reasonably dry.
- It sounds like “rolling hills of Sun Willows” may be similar to the Spartan Invite course which is conducted over a championship golf course. Of the top ten runners who ran both the Michigan state meet and Spartan, their average time was 5 seconds faster at Spartan than at States, even though Spartan was run a month and a half before states.
- Since the Washington meet was more competitive at the top than the Michigan meet, I would expect that would usually cause runners to run faster times.
- Tully’s speed ratings had the Michigan state meet running 6 seconds slower than the Washington state meet.
Based on this, I would disagree that the Michigan state course was faster than the Washington state course in 2013. Therefore, I feel that Fisher’s performance at his state meet was superior to Wilmot’s and also feel he is more deserving of the top ranking this year.
Of course, in the long run, this has little meaning. Both runners should be applauded for their victories in national meets.
cerutty fan

watchout, on , said:

Fair enough re: Wilmot.

Anderson: He did actually run at Arcadia, he was just in the Seeded race (finished sixth in 9:05.42). He actually ran between 9:01.79 and 9:01.83 three times last year, so I'm not sure he could have gone much faster this last spring. When I said he showed big improvement this year, I meant in cross country, specifically starting with his state meet race. From what I understand, that was a moment his coaches thought was a big breakthrough as well.


Completely missed that result at Arcadia, thanks. It does appear 9:01 was where he was at fitness wise. 14:44 for the win is a jump of 50 seconds over last year's state meet. That is indeed significant, both in terms of fitness and psychologically getting the big W. They are doing a lot right up there at North Central, that is for sure. I'm excited to see what Tanner and Wilmot can do on the track this spring. The nice thing with the track is that you don't have to wonder what the course is like; as long as it's sea-level and not extreme weather it's a good indicator of true fitness if it's a high quality meet.

Thanks for the back and forth banter, it's fun learning more about these kids.
watchout
Fair enough re: Wilmot.

Anderson: He did actually run at Arcadia, he was just in the Seeded race (finished sixth in 9:05.42). He actually ran between 9:01.79 and 9:01.83 three times last year, so I'm not sure he could have gone much faster this last spring. When I said he showed big improvement this year, I meant in cross country, specifically starting with his state meet race. From what I understand, that was a moment his coaches thought was a big breakthrough as well.
cerutty fan

watchout, on , said:

Counter-points -

Tanner Anderson: He may have "only" improved 4.5 seconds in the 1600m from his frosh to soph campaigns, you have to remember that he focused on the 1600m as a frosh but not as a soph (and if he keeps dropping that much every year, by the time he's a senior he'll end up a 3k/5k guy that can also drop down and run a 4:05 ... not too bad at all). More importantly, he showed dramatic improvement this year, running with (and often beating) 8:50ish guys like Hardy and Haney. Perhaps most importantly of all, though, is that he ran as well as he did this post season and is only a junior, while the rest of the guys you mentioned were all seniors.

Kai Wilmot: You point out how he already races like a champion. That seems like that should be a bonus for him, not a negative (or seemingly so, since he won in a convincing manner, is the same age as the other guys you are comparing him to, and yet is only #5 on your list and it's certainly not because you think he's put in more work - Arcadia being a very high mileage program compared to the moderate mileage NC runs - or has more speed, as IIRC neither Geberkidane or DeLaRosa have 800m or mile times that compare well to their 3200m+ bests either). The fact that he knows how to race, and does it well, should make him more attractive a recruit than a guy that HASN'T shown that ability (or, at least, didn't show it when they had the opportunity on the big stage).


Both good points. Re: Anderson - His 3200 time was only slightly better than his 1600 time his soph year, although both were very high quality efforts and the latter came just 24 hours after the former from what I can tell. I'm not sure how to word this next question without it possibly sounding bad...where did he show dramatic improvement? My guess is that he would have run faster than 9:01 had he been at the Arcadia invite last year, meaning his 3200 fitness was about on par with Haney 6-7 months ago. To be sure, this kid is phenomenal. It will be a lot of fun to see what he does on the track this season. Would love to see him and Wilmot at Arcadia.

Wilmot: - Can't help but like this kid the more I consider what he's done. Racing like a champion is absolutely a positive/bonus; it can infuse a team with a ton of energy. The injury issues I've heard about would be the major drawback. In terms of absolute (time-trial like) performance I don't think he's better than those kids who were right behind him, which of course makes what he did all the more impressive. So, with that last point in mind, that's why I put him at #5, based on raw fitness only. The idea would be that as a college coach you have something to teach your athletes. With Kai, it's best to get out of his way; he already races like a champion! Seriously, hats off to this kid, that was a very special performance.

I know that may sound confusing, and now I'm a little confused as well :o , that probably just goes to show that a list needs to have a very specific metric being ranked.
watchout
Counter-points -

Tanner Anderson: He may have "only" improved 4.5 seconds in the 1600m from his frosh to soph campaigns, you have to remember that he focused on the 1600m as a frosh but not as a soph (and if he keeps dropping that much every year, by the time he's a senior he'll end up a 3k/5k guy that can also drop down and run a 4:05 ... not too bad at all). More importantly, he showed dramatic improvement this year, running with (and often beating) 8:50ish guys like Hardy and Haney. Perhaps most importantly of all, though, is that he ran as well as he did this post season and is only a junior, while the rest of the guys you mentioned were all seniors.

Kai Wilmot: You point out how he already races like a champion. That seems like that should be a bonus for him, not a negative (or seemingly so, since he won in a convincing manner, is the same age as the other guys you are comparing him to, and yet is only #5 on your list and it's certainly not because you think he's put in more work - Arcadia being a very high mileage program compared to the moderate mileage NC runs - or has more speed, as IIRC neither Geberkidane or DeLaRosa have 800m or mile times that compare well to their 3200m+ bests either). The fact that he knows how to race, and does it well, should make him more attractive a recruit than a guy that HASN'T shown that ability (or, at least, didn't show it when they had the opportunity on the big stage).
cerutty fan

DontStopPre, on , said:

Cerutty fan: I'm certain the rankings aren't based on just talent (but will let Doug B answer that if he chooses), HOWEVER I love your take on the rankings. Your spin was an entertaining read and I enjoyed looking at your list and appreciate your opinions. Seems like you have a pro-CA and anti-WA bias but maybe that's coming from my pro-WA bias lol. No Anderson in your top 7? Really? I will say however personally I would've ranked the CA Haney higher.

Regarding two other points of yours (travel and poor starts): Admittedly 3-time zone jet lag can be difficult but if I'm not mistaken runners have a couple days to adjust correct? (Not to mention that jetlag travel east to west is easier than west to
east). And I'm not sure how North Central travelled to Portland. IF it was by car/van/bus that's a long drive! If it was by plane then yes its a quick flight but the security and hassles are still hard. Regarding the poor starts that is kind of the runners fault unlesd they got pushed. I don't recall everyone's starts but I think NC had to move through a lot too (though I think it was part of the race plan).


Not consciously Pro-CA or Anti-WA. I do prefer the Pacific Northwest over Southern California, for about 4 months of the year, then the reverse holds true.

It's definitely the fault of a runner if they get a poor start, but one has to say what the rankings are supposed to be ummm...ranking. I took the perspective of ranking potential performance in the next year. I don't have enough data on all of the starters to properly rank them all, so it's an approximation looking at some of the top finishers. Some of them I've seen throughout the year, such as Yoho, so am aware of their situation better than others.

Regarding Anderson, he went 9:01 for 3200 as a sophomore. Very impressive, but after going 4:18 for 1600 as a freshman it would indicate he's improved little since then. That would concern me a little as a college coach. That doesn't take away the FACT he got 3rd place at NXN, though!

Contrast that with Yoho, who very rarely matches up against equal competition since he competes in a very small division during the regular season and therefore is not pushed as hard. He ran 10:07 for 3200 as a sophomore and 9:33 as a junior. Now he has caught up to Anderson, which tells me his current trajectory put him ahead of Anderson in a year or two. If I had to bet on it, I would certainly put my money on him over Anderson.

With someone like Haney, he appears more mature biologically so would be expected to improve less. Of course, anyone running 3:44 for 1500 is only going to improve so much more! He looks to have tight hip flexors too, so maybe there would be additional upside working on that.

De La Rosa is no stranger to starting out a little more conservative, and that fits his physiology better, but in a race of this caliber that can potentially backfire. There were reports of him falling early on, which if true, make his performance all the more impressive, but all the more frustrating at the same time. McMillan (63 - 41 - 13 - 10 -7) seems to have run nearly side-by-side with De La Rosa (62 - 38 - 11 - 7 - 5). De La Rosa is a championship racer. His 2 best results were from the meets that in my mind had the greatest level of energy at them; Woodbridge in the early season and then NXN. The same can be said for Haney actually. It may sound strange to say Woodbridge is 1 of 2 highest energy level races, but it's a very high quality event late at night and early enough in the season where nobody has had the chance to show their stuff yet. The buzz was very high there. The other thing about De La Rosa is that he looks like a boy still. And he has a very fluid stride. The only reservation I'd have with De La Rosa is that he only has 2 varsity wins in his HS career (both his jr year of XC, none on the track) according to easily accessible records on athletic.net. Caldwell (78 - 31 - 9 - 6 - 8) got out a little slow as well. The times at the first split won't be significantly slower, but being in that position can take a lot more energy due to the jostling going on and not knowing exactly where you are stepping draining energy by increasing muscular tension.

As for NC moving through the pack, that doesn't appear to be the case when looking at the splits. Anderson (7 - 8 - 2 - 9 - 3) and Wilmot (11 - 10 - 1 - 1 - 1) clearly came to race and believed in themselves. The latter can be hard to teach. To be clear, those guys owned it. Especially Wilmot. He took it by the scruff and smashed everyone. Totally awesome to watch. The kid is a champion. That is how champions race. He put himself in position to attack at the right time, which, consciously or not, further heightened his nervous energetic capacity due to the natural reaction of being chased.

The scoreboard ALWAYS takes precedent over the what-ifs. So, again, my take was more of a future performance sort of ranking as basing rankings directly off of results is redundant.
DontStopPre
Cerutty fan: I'm certain the rankings aren't based on just talent (but will let Doug B answer that if he chooses), HOWEVER I love your take on the rankings. Your spin was an entertaining read and I enjoyed looking at your list and appreciate your opinions. Seems like you have a pro-CA and anti-WA bias but maybe that's coming from my pro-WA bias lol. No Anderson in your top 7? Really? I will say however personally I would've ranked the CA Haney higher.

Regarding two other points of yours (travel and poor starts): Admittedly 3-time zone jet lag can be difficult but if I'm not mistaken runners have a couple days to adjust correct? (Not to mention that jetlag travel east to west is easier than west to
east). And I'm not sure how North Central travelled to Portland. IF it was by car/van/bus that's a long drive! If it was by plane then yes its a quick flight but the security and hassles are still hard. Regarding the poor starts that is kind of the runners fault unlesd they got pushed. I don't recall everyone's starts but I think NC had to move through a lot too (though I think it was part of the race plan).
cerutty fan

DontStopPre, on , said:

I agree with RunSpokane and Watchout: being undefeated and racing in Spokane is virtually impossible due to the competition in the city (or team) let alone state! Also agree that Bordetclash or any allstar race shouldn't go into any ratings equation.

It's true that Wilmot's 4th place State finish doesn't jump out and advocate for a clear and decisive national champ ranking but (again) keep in mind who his competition was (compared to Fisher or anyone else).

It's too bad Fisher and Wilmot didn't race each other to make the ranking easier. But even then if the meeting would've been early season it would only be a small factor, when I believe the biggest factor should be the last race. It's understandable to use the undefeated season point as the distinguishing factor (or tie breaker if you will) but I feel the distinguishing factor should be quality of race in the focal point race of the year whether its FL or NXN. When you run at North Central EVERYTHING is geared at peaking at NXN! State performance pales in comparison (Borderclash isn't even on the radar more than a very solid workout). Wilmot won the big one when it counted. He was the underdog but the underdog who steps up and wins March Madness with a so-so record not only wins the national championship but is #1 in the final rankings too.


Fair points, but Wilmot, and the other Northwest kids had quite a bit in their favor. They were competing close to home (minimal travel, same time zone) in an environment they were used to.

Contrast that with the kids from southern California who are not typically exposed to temperatures below 50 degrees. Or those from moderate altitude, such as Geberkidane, who aren't able to get in the really high intensity work that can be done nearer to sea-level. Or those from east coast who moved 3 time zones.

Maybe it should be asked as to what the individual rankings are supposed to represent. Talent? Certainly the rankings don't directly mirror the results, so what are they meant to reflect?

If it's strictly talent and I'm recruiting as a college coach, then looking at NXN separately from FL I'd say Yoho is #1 (this may have been his only race of the year where he was actually racing, not time-trialing). Geberkidane is extremely close #2 (based on him not being used to sea-level intensity). De La Rosa #3 (got a poor start and is from a much warmer climate). McMillan #4 (got a poor start and doesn't have sea-level intensity in his legs). Wilmot #5. Caldwell #6 (got a poor start and traveled 2 time zones). Haney #7.
DontStopPre
I agree with RunSpokane and Watchout: being undefeated and racing in Spokane is virtually impossible due to the competition in the city (or team) let alone state! Also agree that Bordetclash or any allstar race shouldn't go into any ratings equation.

It's true that Wilmot's 4th place State finish doesn't jump out and advocate for a clear and decisive national champ ranking but (again) keep in mind who his competition was (compared to Fisher or anyone else).

It's too bad Fisher and Wilmot didn't race each other to make the ranking easier. But even then if the meeting would've been early season it would only be a small factor, when I believe the biggest factor should be the last race. It's understandable to use the undefeated season point as the distinguishing factor (or tie breaker if you will) but I feel the distinguishing factor should be quality of race in the focal point race of the year whether its FL or NXN. When you run at North Central EVERYTHING is geared at peaking at NXN! State performance pales in comparison (Borderclash isn't even on the radar more than a very solid workout). Wilmot won the big one when it counted. He was the underdog but the underdog who steps up and wins March Madness with a so-so record not only wins the national championship but is #1 in the final rankings too.
watchout

DougB, on , said:

There has to be a little more than one race to justify a season ranking. In the case of the Washington guys, I believe the state meet matters, NXN/FL regionals matters and BorderClash matters. Anyone who might have an expectation of finishing No. 1 has to demonstrate some level of dominance. And don't get me wrong, because I like Wilmot a lot and he had a really good day at NXN. But he was 33 seconds behind his teammate at the state meet and didn't win either of NXN NW or BC. (And if you want to argue that state/regional/all-star meets don't matter at all, then it undermines the entire list). You may have an argument that his NXN is better than Fisher's FL -- although I'm not convinced of that. Keep in mind John Dressel was 6-1 against Wilmot this season.


I agree that more than one meet needs to be taken into consideration.

I also agree that State/NXR/NXN/FLR/FLN are the meets that should matter the most.

I disagree that BorderClash should really play much of a factor, as not all the kids gunned it - particularly kids with bigger post-season plans (e.g. North Central guys, Gig Harbor guys, Central Catholic guys, and Joe Hardy).

I think Wilmot's season results are at least on par with Grant Fisher's. The only difference in Fisher's favor is that he never got beat (and he also didn't really race anyone).

Wilmot's state race vs. Fishers? Wilmot's was the better performance, but Fisher won while Wilmot was fourth (to three guys that finished in the top 5 at NXN/FLN)... Wilmot's time was only 4.5 seconds behind Fishers, and MIS flat/fast/gently curving/wide open course is more than 10 seconds faster than the rolling hills of Sun Willows.

Wilmot's NXR race vs. Fishers' FLR race? I'd give the edge to Fisher.

Wilmot's NXN race vs. Fishers' FLN race? I'd give the SLIGHT edge to Wilmot.

Wilmot's best invite races vs. Fishers'? I'd give the edge to Wilmot (Firman + Richland) over Fisher (Portage).

Wilmot had much more than one race showing that he was at least on the same level as Fisher. And I'd argue he showed more dominance when all the cards were down (@ the national championship meets).

But, again, I can certainly see the rationale for having Fisher #1 - they were similar enough at the end of the year (the national series meets), and Fisher was undefeated which should count for something.
RunSpokane
The reason to.not use BC as a data point is that kai and tanner were talking most of the race. They took off the last little bit.
DougB

watchout, on , said:

This.

I agree that Kai's the more impressive XC runner this year, particularly when comparing the national meets. However, I can certainly understand the rationale for having Fisher at #1 - it's not his fault that he didn't face much competition before the Foot Locker meets.

Both seem deserving of #1 to me, but only one can get the honor... Fisher is the more PC choice, as he was never beat.



There has to be a little more than one race to justify a season ranking. In the case of the Washington guys, I believe the state meet matters, NXN/FL regionals matters and BorderClash matters. Anyone who might have an expectation of finishing No. 1 has to demonstrate some level of dominance. And don't get me wrong, because I like Wilmot a lot and he had a really good day at NXN. But he was 33 seconds behind his teammate at the state meet and didn't win either of NXN NW or BC. (And if you want to argue that state/regional/all-star meets don't matter at all, then it undermines the entire list). You may have an argument that his NXN is better than Fisher's FL -- although I'm not convinced of that. Keep in mind John Dressel was 6-1 against Wilmot this season.
watchout
Meylan posted a good article today on how he would see a hypothetical race of the top athletes in the nation:

http://tullyrunners....tSeason2013.htm

(he used only athletes at the national meets, but their races at that meet wasn't his only criteria in evaluating their odds)
watchout

RunSpokane, on , said:

It's harder to stay undefeated when there are 3 top 6 runners in your league :)


This.

I agree that Kai's the more impressive XC runner this year, particularly when comparing the national meets. However, I can certainly understand the rationale for having Fisher at #1 - it's not his fault that he didn't face much competition before the Foot Locker meets.

Both seem deserving of #1 to me, but only one can get the honor... Fisher is the more PC choice, as he was never beat.
coachhovis
Jacob Pickle was 11th at Foot Locker South yet is ahead of 9 guys who beat him? This really gives no love to those that qualified for Foot Locker. Poor.
DougB
Foot Locker isn't the only national meet. So if Pickle has a really good NXN, which he kind of did, and some of the guys from South don't fare so well at FL Finals, how would you figure that?
RunSpokane
It's harder to stay undefeated when there are 3 top 6 runners in your league :)
DougB

Coach BC, on , said:

Doug, thank you for putting these rankings out there. You went very deep this go round. It's fun to look at and compare my own thoughts.

I know that no one will 100% agree with you. It does make for great discussion.



Thanks. Merging the two national meets I judged the NXN race to be about 10 seconds faster that Foot Locker. (And part of that "figuring" is that I believe Dressel and Wilmot to be virtually identical given how many times they went back and forth this season). So Wilmot's 15:00 is roughly equal to Dressel's 15:10. There is no way that the only undefeated runner in the country, and Foot Locker champ, isn't going to be No. 1. Between BorderClash and NXN, Tanner lost to four of the five guys ahead of him. While I don't put a ton of stock into BorderClash, it's not meaningless. And the national meet carries more weight than the state meet and regional meet. Keep in mind that it was a very big deal when Tanner beat Joe Hardy at state. And Joe finished fifth at Foot Locker.
But yeah, this list is my opinion. I invite the discussion and welcome the feedback.
DougB

runningwithkids, on , said:

DougB Thanks for the explanation. My point is less about Reiser, more about Ostberg, who on relative basis is ranked too low. If we move up 1 spot to DeHaven, how do you rank his 17th NXN and 18th FL ahead of Ostberg's 11th FL. Ostberg ran a strong FL race and was in the lead pack of 5 until about the 2 mile mark. Ostberg peaked at the right time and he deserves a higher ranking. He's a junior - watch him in outdoor TF and next fall!



Ostberg was impressive at Foot Locker and I think he's in really good company on the list. DeHaven underperformed at both national meets (he won the NXN Heartland and was second at Foot Locker Midwest). Ostberg was under the radar two months ago but has my attention now. Can't wait to see what he does next.
dkap
I agree with Fisher at #1. Wilmot's national championship might have been slightly more impressive, but in lieu of a head to head match-up, "undefeated" has to count for something. It's not like Fisher ducked the competition by choosing Footlocker ... he beat #3 and #4 in the final rankings.

Dan
@xcnation
Kai Wilmot=US#1
DontStopPre
Wow Doug, personally I never would've attempted this Herculean attempt, I give you rep points just for attempting this, I am too busy bowing down to your awesomeness that I cannot criticize your rankings (though if I did, it would be that Kai should be #1 by his awesome/fast/dominating win at NXN, but I am biased too, although I do feel strongly that Kai be #1, but I digress, very impressive list).
Coach BC
Doug, thank you for putting these rankings out there. You went very deep this go round. It's fun to look at and compare my own thoughts.

I know that no one will 100% agree with you. It does make for great discussion.
RunSpokane
Coach bc, Kai's win at nxn would put him in front of Dressel. Besides that, I would agree that using Doug's criteria Tanner should be 2.
Coach BC
and Dressel would be third with Wilmot fourth.
Coach BC
Looking at your criteria, Tanner Anderson should be your number 2. He won state (against Dressel and Wilmot). He won NXN NW. Ran the same time as 2nd place NXN (very close finish).

Dressel and Wilmot both didn't fare well at state. Dressel did take 2nd at FLW, while Wilmot was 3rd at NXNW.
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