Olympic Trials: Which HS athletes make the cut?

 

By Doug Binder, DyeStat Editor

 

State championship meets, and the qualifying meets that lead to them, are in full swing as we reach the heart of the 2016 high school track season.

 

What lies ahead, though, is an opportunity that comes only once every four years: The U.S. Olympic Trials.

 

Prep world champion-turned-pro Vashti Cunningham from Bishop Gorman NV has a great chance to make the Olympic team and compete at the Rio de Janeiro Games in August.

 

But what other high school track stars have a chance to compete head to head with the nation’s best athletes at the Trials?

 

Here is a look, based on the cut-offs that produced the 2012 Olympic Trials fields, at who might be able to earn a spot at Hayward Field in Eugene. Keep in mind that those cut-offs are a moving target and won’t be exactly the same in 2016. But they're a good approximation.

 

 

100 Meters (38 athletes)

Men 10.21

Women 11.35

 

Noah Lyles of T.C. Williams has been eyeing a spot in the Trials and the wind-legal 10.17 he ran at the Arcadia Invitational in early April is an indicator that he can make the cut.

 

Kaylin Whitney and Candace Hill turned pro in high school for a reason – to try and make the Olympic team. Although they don’t intersect with the high school track world much these days, these two high school students have the talent and skill to be factors in the women’s 100. Additionally, Californians Lauren Rain Williams and Zaria Francis, Texan Kaylor Harris and Georgia champion Cassondra Hall could be in the mix.  

 

 

200 (30)

Men 20.56

Women 23.07

 

Noah Lyles ran 20.33 last weekend at the T.C. Williams Invitational in Virginia. He is likely going to make it. Michael Norman has run 20.41 this season and 20.24 last season, but he’s probably going to focus his attention on the 400. Tyrese Cooper of American FL, a 16-year-old freshman, has run 20.46 (2.2w).

 

Candace Hill and Kaylin Whitney figured to be in. Lauren Rain Williams of Oaks Christian ran 22.90 wind-legal at the end of last season, so she can get there.

 

 

400 (28)

Men 45.75

Women 52.49

 

Three prep boys have broken 46 seconds so far this season – Norman, Josephus Lyles and Cooper. Norman ran 45.19 last year and has been training this year to make more than an appearance at the Trials. If he’s in PR condition, he could contend for a spot in the finals. This event is wide open in the U.S. right now. Lyles is dealing with a quad injury but he has time to bounce back and get to the Trials. The precocious Cooper needs to run a bit faster.

 

National leader McKenzie Dunmore of McEachern GA has run 52.51, which puts her on the bubble. There are a lot of strong women – pros and collegians – to deal with. Lynna Irby of Pike IN ran 51.79 last year and if she can return to that form again she could make it to the Trials.

 

 

800 (32)

Men 1:47.49

Women 2:03.37

 

It’s unlikely that anyone from the high school crowd is going to go this fast. National leader Brandon McGorty of Chantilly VA is a second away at 1:48.58. But it’s possible.

 

Samantha Watson of Rush-Henrietta NY ran 2:03.54 last year, which puts her on the bubble. She has some big meets coming up in which she could improve her chances of making it to the Trials. Also keep in mind that an additional six sophomres and juniors ran sub-2:06 in 2015 -- that list includes Sarah Walker, Christina Aragon, Kamryn McIntosh, Julia Heymach, Ruby Stauber, Danae Rivers and Aaliyah Miller. LSU signee Stauber, in particular, may be poised to break out.

 

 

1,500 (30)

Men 3:39.39

Women 4:13.04

 

Andrew Hunter has proven to be an exceptional talent and if he is able to rip through a PR mile at the Prefontaine Classic, it might be his ticket to earning a spot in the Trials. Fellow sub-four miler Michael Slagowski is planning to take a shot at it, too, and will need to run faster than his 3:42 en route time.

 

For the women, this event is getting deeper and stronger. In 2008, Jordan Hasay and Christine Babcock made it out of the prep ranks and competed at the Trials. Neither of them would probably make it in 2016. However, Christina Aragon of Billings Senior MT could make it with her 4:11.24. Katie Rainsberger (4:14.20), Ella Donaghu (4:15.28) and Kate Murphy (4:16.98 in 2015) are all on the bubble.

 

5,000 (16)

Men 13:37

Women 15:34.5

 

This lineup is going to be too hard to crack.

 

 

3,000-meter steeplechase (24)

Men 8:36

Women 9:58.4

 

It would take a national high school record to make this field. This event requires strength and a skill set that is not often acquired in high school.

 

10,000 (24)

Men 28:20

Women 32:48

 

No prep runners on the radar here.

 

 

100/110H (32)

Men 13.73

Women 13.09

 

Four high school hurdlers have run faster than 13.70 this spring, but keep in mind that high school hurdles are set at 39 inches. At the Olympic Trials they are 42 inches. That makes a difference. Trey Cunningham from Winfield AL has run 13.35 this spring over the 39-inchers. He may have a shot.

 

This could be the event of the year in women’s track and field in the U.S. It will be a cut-throat Trials and the finals may have more quality than the actual Olympics themselves. It’s also a hot event at the high school level where Tonea Marshall and Chanel Brisset are capable of making the field. Alexis Duncan, Tia Jones, Brandee Johnson and Brittley Humphrey aren’t far off, either. And the hurdles height stays the same.

 

 

400H (28)

Men 50.54

Women 57.40

 

Norman Grimes ran 50.10 last year at the Pan Am Juniors last summer. He could make it.

 

All eyes will be on Sydney McLaughlin here. She has been training all year for a strong showing at the Trials. But this event is growing stronger at the collegiate level, so it won’t be easy to advance through the round all the way to the final. McLaughlin has run 55.28, so making the field shouldn’t be an issue. In 2012, the last qualifier into the final ran 55.77. It took sub-55 to make the Olympic team. Another prep who could be a factor is 2015 U.S. Junior champ Anna Cockrell from Providence Day NC, who has run 56.67.

 

 

Pole Vault (24)

Men - 5.51 (18-1)

Women - 4.30 (14-1.25)

 

Christopher Nilsen of Park Hill MO broke the national high school record with 18-4.75 on May 21 and that moved him to No. 14 in the U.S. So he's sure to make it. Mondo Duplantis of Lafayette LA could probably do it, too, but he competes internationally for Sweden.

 

Rachel Baxter of Canyon (Anaheim) has gone 14-3 this spring for No. 3 all-time outdoors on the high school list. That would put her on the bubble for making the Trials field in an event that keeps getting stronger.

 

 

Long jump (24)

Men - 7.85 (25-9.25)

Women - 6.47 (21-2.75)

 

Ja’Mari Ward dislocated his knee cap last weekend and that possibly set him back a couple of weeks. He broke the Illinois state record when he went 25-6.75 but may need a bit more to make it to the Trials. Rayvon Grey of Beacon NY went 26-0.25 and Grant Holloway of Grassfield VA popped 25-11.50 indoors, showing that they are capable as well.

 

Tara Davis from Agoura jumped 21 feet and a half inch last summer at the World Youth Championships. She probably has the best chance of any one in the high school ranks, but she probably needs to PR again.

 

High jump (24)

Men - 2.22 (7-3.50)

Women - 1.83 (6-0)

 

Vernon Turner, a junior from Yukon OK, suddenly became a potential Trials qualifier when he jumped 7-4 to break the all-time Oklahoma record in the high jump last weekend. Noah Martin from University High in Spokane, Wash. has gone 7-3 this season.

 

Vashti Cunningham of Bishop Gorman is not just the greatest high school high jumper in history, she is the world indoor champion and a potential Olympic Games medalist. At this rate, it would be unfortunate if she did not place top-three at the Trials. 

  

Triple jump (24)

Men - 16.24 (53-3.50)

Women - 13.13 (43-1)

 

Ja’Mari Ward jumped 53-7.50 this spring, which could be enough to clear him for takeoff at the Trials. However, he will need to recover from a knee injury in order to make it happen.

 

Tara Davis from Agoura CA has gone 43-2. That doesn’t guarantee her a spot in the Trials. But she could get in with that mark. 

 

Shot put (24)

Men - 19.42 (63-8.75)

Women - 16.44 (53-11.25)

 

The move up to 16 pounds is jarring for most high school throwers. Jordan Geist and Adrian Piperi may be over 70 feet with the 12-pound ball, but it’s unlikely they can make the cut. In prep history, only Michael Carter has thrown a 16-pounder this far.

 

It’s a great year for girls throwing and it’s possible that a high school girl could mix it up with the women at the Trials. Elena Bruckner of Valley Christian CA has thrown 53-7 this season. Alyssa Wilson of Monsignor Donovan NJ has thrown 54-11 indoors and 53-4.75 outdoors. Nickolette Dunbar of Whippany Park NJ threw 54-7.50 indoors.

 

 

Discus (24)

Men - 60.17 (197-5)

Women - 56.46 (185-3)

 

This is beyond where any of this year’s high school boys are capable of going with the 2.0-kg platter.

 

Elena Bruckner, like Shelbi Vaughn before her, could certainly make the field at the Trials. She has thrown 186-10 already and has some big meets lined up where she could go even farther.

 

Javelin

Men - 73.01 (239-6)

Women - 51.24 (168-1)

 

No one in the prep ranks appears capable of making the men’s field.

 

Sophia Rivera of Brentwood MO is sure to make the Trials with her season-best throw of 180-4. Madison Wiltrout of Connellsville PA is the national record holder at 185-8 and she is making steady progress after returning from off-season elbow surgery. Don’t count her out.