DyeStatNV NIAA Northern Nevada Regional Preview

The 2016 Northern Nevada Regional Cross Country Championships will be held at Shadow Mountain Park (Reed HS) in Sparks. The course will be 3 loops of the Shadow Mountain 5k course, avoiding the big hill, in preparation for the flat State course in North Las Vegas one week later.  Races begin at 10:00am with the 2A/1A Boys Race.

Here’s our preview with statistics coming from Athletic.net

4A (Top 3 teams and the 5 individuals from non-qualifying teams will make it to the State Championship.

Boys – Something tells me that this is going to be a close team race. Yes, Spanish Springs has been #1 all season. But watch out for McQueen! On paper only 14 points separate them.  McQueen’s 3-7 will have to step up if they want the trophy.  Spanish Springs has 3 under 16:00 (Stanford course). McQueen’s 2:14 1-5 spread is not great, but a 1:29 from Spanish Springs isn’t either. Galena looks like a State Qualifier, with Douglas and Reed hoping for an upset.

The Individual Championship is Henry Weisberg’s to lose.  Number 1 all season and the defending State Champ. Henry’s sub 15:00 5k (14:59) is the fastest 5k in a long time in Nevada, putting him on the DyeStat Watch List.  Reed’s Anthony Ocegueda is a capable foe as is Spanish Spring’s Daniel Horner.  “On any given….Friday”.

The 5 Individual Qualifiers will most likely come from the 4th-5th place team’s #1 and #2.  Others looking to take the long bus ride to Vegas include: Ocegueda (Reed); Damonte Ranch’s Aric Turner and Alexander Riggsby, and Reno’s Nicholas McMillen.

Girls – As strong as Centennial is in the South, Reno is in the North. Ranked #1 in the State, the Huskies look good for the win.  Damonte Ranch looks good for 2^nd, but the battle will be for the 3^rd State spot. Bishop Manogue and McQueen are separated by 11 points.  That’s not comfortable enough for me.  Bishop Manogue has a 2:50 spread between 1-5. So if McQueen’s 2-5 can get in there…. Each of these two teams lack a strong 5-7, so whomever steps up, will ride the bus.

The Individual Championship is up for grabs.  There is a very talented group of #1’s that should fight right to the finish line. Samantha King-Shaw is the Northern Leader with 18:19.5 with Wooster’s Gillian Ipsen at 18:19.9.  Too close to call. Number 3 is Reno’s Kyra Hunsberger.  Kyra has had an illustrious career at Reno.  Second at State as a freshman, Northern regional Champ in 2014, 9^th at State last year and Northern League Champion last week.  If experience counts for anything, watch out for Kyra.

Samantha King-Shaw will lead the group of 5 Individual Qualifers along with Wooster’s Gillian Ipsen and Spanish Springs’ Alexis Melendrez. The next 2 should come from a group of 1-2’s from the 4^th and 5^th place team.

3A (Top 3 teams and the 5 individuals from non-qualifying teams will make it to the State Championship)

Boys – Spring Creek and Truckee look good for 1-2. Seven points separate teams 3-5, with Elko (3^rd) and Dayton and Fernley tied for 4^th.  Three go in the North and the team 1-5 spreads for these 3 are within 7 seconds!  Who wants it? Elko has the best #5 runner, so that may decide it.

William Fallini-Hass is the North’s #1 having run 15:52, but 3 seconds back is Dayton’s Jonathan Ply (15:55).  These 2 boys have a 30 second+ cushion on #3’s Ian Smith from Truckee. Spring Creek has the North’s #4 and #8 (Cole Campbell and Thomas Anderson).  That’s why they’re #1.

The 5 Individual Qualifiers should come from the 4-5^th place teams #1, along with Lowry’s Will Kracaw, Churchill County’s Joseph Terry and South Tahoe’s David Holmes.

Girls – Truckee looks great for #1. They have five in the top 10 and that spells W-I-N!  Spring Creek is a solid second. Third is up for grabs with Fernley, South Tahoe and Elko separated by just 10 points. Elko’s 1-5 spread of 3:13 may spell doom though.  Fernley and South Tahoe are very close in all 1-5 matchups. Fernley has a better 6-7, and that may make the difference.

Individually, Truckee’s Brenna Wapstra Scott is the class of the Northern 3A.  She is the only girl under 19:00 for 5k this season.  Don’t count out Elko’s Kacie Bell. Fifteen seconds is a lot to make up, but anything can happen.

Individual Qualifiers will come out of the 4^th and 5^th place teams 1-2 or 3. 

2A/1A (Top 3 teams and the 5 individuals from non-qualifying teams will make it to the State Championship.

Boys – North Tahoe, Team Time of 1:31, Sierra Lutheran, Team Time of 1:32, Silver Stage, Team Time of 1:35.  There you have it.  North Tahoe can start there scoring with a 1-2 with Jared Marchegger and Richard McNeely (16:07-16:19), then it will be up to the others to pack them in before NT’s 5^th.  It will be tough though, North Tahoe has a respectable 1:36 1-5 split. Sierra Lutheran’s 1-5 is 4:49!

Individually, Marchegger was 2^nd at the 2015 Regionals and should face competition from his teammate McNeely and North Tahoe’s JC Schoonmaker.

Individual Qualifiers will come from the 1-2 finishers from the non-qualifying teams. Those hoping for a bus rise to Vegas include Jackpot’s Ricardo Miramontes and Carlos Mata; Yerington’s Kevin Kirk and Wells’ Roberto Roque-Luna.

Girls – North Tahoe and Sierra Lutheran have identical Team Times of 1:46. North Tahoe has the edge on 1-5 spread by 1:00. Both have solid teams and should easily make it to State. Wells and Yerington will fight it out for 3^rd , but the edge is with Wells.

Individually, Sierra Lutheran’s Elaina Marchegger is the Defending Regional and State Champion. Look for a stride for stride race between Marchegger and North Tahoe’s Quinn Lehmkuhl.  Lehmkuhl was the 2014 Northern Regional and State Champion and in 2015, placed 4^th at Region and 2^nd at State.

With 3 teams qualifying for State (4 if the South doesn’t have 6 full teams), the qualifers will come from the 1’s and 2’s from the 4^th place team as well as Incline’s Ursula Volz and Kate Rye.