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California Boys Preseason XC Rankings 2018

Published by
DyeStat.com   Aug 21st 2018, 4:34pm
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Great Oak, St. Francis Mountain View Lead Way in California

By Paul Schmitz of DyeStat

Boys California Preview 

Three-time defending “merge” champion Great Oak is back at the No. 1 spot in California going into the fall. The CIF Division 1 champions and NXN sixth-place finishers return three of their scoring five and four of seven. California is stacked once again in 2018 and Great Oak will not be the only team from California high up in the preseason national rankings. Great Oak will be joined by St. Francis Mountain View, a team that finished third in the California merge and ninth at NXN in 2017. The Lancers graduated No. 1 runner Shyam Kumar from that team, but return the rest of the lineup.  

Behind the big two of Great Oak and St. Francis, the California landscape has been shaped by transfers. Another preseason favorite, Dana Hills, lost one of its top runners, Caleb Niednagel, to La Costa Canyon. Dana Hills holds its third position in part due to incoming transfer Cole Stark. Dana Hills heads a tier of five teams with little separation among them. Dana Hills, La Costa Canyon, Newbury Park, Claremont and Dublin all have reason for optimism and are within range of grabbing an NXN bid.   

California has secured more at-large bids than any other region in the country and 2018 projects to be another year of at least three teams traveling to Portland. (The only year since the inception of the at-large process that California didn’t get an extra bid was 2015, the year Great Oak and Dana Hills finished first and third at NXN.) Beyond the top two, any team running close to Great Oak and St. Francis Mountain View will have a strong argument for an at-large bid.  

1. Great Oak CA. The team from Great Oak has arguably been the deepest squad in the country the past three years and is reloaded again in 2018. Great Oak returns three of five and four of seven. Led by juniors Chris Verdugo and Gabriel Abbes, the Wolfpack is poised to add at least a couple of more years to its fantastic three-year run at NXN. 

2. St. Francis Mountain View CA. There is very little separating the top two California teams and they will be right next to one another when the national rankings come out. St. Francis, the CIF Division 2 defending champion, has a nice 1-2 punch at the top of its lineup in Colton Colonna and Eric Eng. Behind those two is quality depth with NXN experience. 

3. Dana Hills CA. The loss of top runner Jack Landgraf and transfer of Caleb Niednagel are obstacles the team needs to overcome, but the Dolphins have the history and the depth to make a run at their ninth trip to Portland. Led by senior Simon Fuller, Dana Hills goes seven or eight deep.       

4. La Costa Canyon CA. Bursting onto the national scene this summer is the CIF Division 3 runner-up, which has moved up this year to Division 2. Along with newcomer Caleb Niednagel, the Mavericks have twins Jacob and Garrett Stanford, both top 10 returners from the California team merge results. With a a decent supporting cast behind those three, La Costa Canyon can challenge for the title in Division 2 and will be competitive in the merge. If the four and five runners can get close to the top three, this team could make an impact at NXN. 

5. (Tie) Newbury Park and Claremont.  The projections have the next two California teams in the dead heat with a third team, Dublin, just behind. These two are so close that they will be lined up side by side in the national preseason rankings as well. The team from Newbury Park will move up if it can translate a great season on the track to the cross country course, led by potential break out star Nico Young. Claremont might be the safest bet because of its depth but lacks a potential low stick to have a high ceiling at this point. 

 

Watchlist

Dublin CA

Long Beach Poly CA 

Los Altos CA

Jesuit CA

Palos Verdes CA

Granada CA 

Eleanor Roosevelt CA

Bellarmine Prep CA 

Sir Francis Drake CA



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2 comment(s)
jtkleinosu
I am a mathematician, but I can't figure out the article's G.O.'s returnee math in this article- (G.O.) "return three of their scoring five and six of seven." At that rate, they probably return their entire top 10.
DougB
Yep. Typo. Sorry about that!
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