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2015 Nike Cross Nationals Boys Preview: An Illinois View - DyeStat ILPublished by
Expectations are high with 3 Illinois teams and individuals toeing the line for Portland
By Michael Newman
High School cross country in Illinois could be considered a success on the national front especially with the state having three schools and three individuals qualifying for this weekend’s Nike Cross Nationals at Portland’s Glendoveer Golf Course. Conditions will be wet with rain expected for the next few days including the races on Saturday. That should not bother these Illinois runners that have gone through much worse especially during Sectional Saturday on Halloween.
Sandburg displayed their strength and depth up front going undefeated during the regular season including winning their first IHSA state championship. They jumped to the #1 spot in the DyeStat National rankings the first week of September when they split their squads winning both the Peoria Central Invitational and the St. Charles North Invitational against strong fields. Sandburg is one of those teams to watch having a strong shot of winning the national championship. The experience that they had a year ago at this meet when they finished 15th. That experience should pay off in this race on Saturday.
Neuqua Valley punched their ticket to Portland just like they have during the end of the year using a tight pack. They will be close together in the race on Saturday. They train and run this way so the situation of a national race should not effect this group. Lyons Township held their breath after they finished third at the NXN Midwest waiting for the call to tell them that they would be going to Portland. This team has not received the national recognition in the rankings that they justly deserved. They have run strong in big meets this season. Saturday’s race should be no exception.
Jon Davis will be one of the favorites in this race. That should not surprise any of the Illinois fans that have watched him run in this state this season. The 13:59.3 that he ran to win his third straight 1A championship showed that he could be a runner to watch on the national level. The last two Midwest regional meets that he won demonstrated that he could win on Saturday.
The other two qualifiers are underclassmen that will make their presence known in this race and then nationally next year. Jack Aho won the 2A state title in commanding fashion pulling away in the final 1k to win. The surprised many in Terre Haute with his fourth place finish. Charlie Kern Jr. ran tactical races his last two races. He came from 12th place with 800 meters to go at the IHSA state meet running a 2:09 final 800 to finish second in that race. He came from 15th place with 1k to go in the NXN Midwest Regional to kick in to finish fifth. Kern has amazing leg speed at the end. The Monday before the state meet he ran a 4:17 mile in flats on the track. Both Aho and Kern are capable of placing in the top 15 in this race.
Here is a look at what I feel could happen in Saturday’s race. The teams are listed in the order of how I think they might finish.
Good luck to these athletes that will compete in Portland Saturday afternoon.
Boys Team Qualifiers
1 - Great Oak HS, Temecula CA 11/26 DS Ranking – 2 1st – CA D1 State Meet
Team Overview – The question will be how will this team recover from a fast race at state last Saturday to what could be a sloppy course in this meet. The power of this team relies on their three top runners Spencer Dodds, Cole Spencer, and Isaac Cortes. The three seniors averaged a 16 second gap among them this season. It was only five seconds last Saturday in Fresno. There is a good chance that all three could be in the top 25 in Portland. The team ran their best 5 man split of the year last week at 38 seconds. If they can keep that gap under 45 seconds, Great Oak will be in the running for the national championship.
2 - Liverpool HS, Liverpool NY 11/26 DS Ranking – 6 1st – NXN New York Regional
Team Overview – The name of the game for Liverpool in this race is keeping their pack close to #1 runner Ben Petrella. The New York Class A champion looks to be in the top five in this race. Things to watch in this race is the gap between Petrella and #2 runner Ty Brownlow and the split between the Brownlow led pack. Brownlow has typically been on an average 35 seconds behind Petrella most of the season. Last week at the New York Regional, that gap was 50 seconds. In that race, the split on the two through five runners was 32 seconds. The rest of the year when Brownlow was closer to the front, the split was near 50 seconds. For this team to finish within the top three teams, the split between Petrella and Brownlow needs to be 35 seconds or closer. The two to five pack needs to be near 40 seconds or faster.
3 - Sandburg HS, Orland Park IL 11/26 DS Ranking – 1 1st – NXN Midwest Regional
Team Overview – Sandburg has been at the top of the DyeStat rankings since the beginning of October. It would not surprise me if they end up winning the national championship on Saturday. Sean Torpy has emerged the top runner on this team. He could be among the top 25 runners individually. They will need Max Lehnhardt and Chris Torpy within 15 seconds of their #1 runner on Saturday. A concern area could be the five runner split especially how far back their fifth man Tom Brennen was at the Midwest Regional. It was 64 seconds on their top five at that race. Their split normally this season was been 30 seconds or better. What could help is the return of Sophomore Dylan Jacobs who was one of their top three runners earlier in the year. He was not able to race at state and regional due to a hamstring injury. He is recovered but has not raced since the middle of October. If he is with Lehnhardt and Chris Torpy, that could push this team to a national championship.
4 - Dana Hills HS, Dana Point CA 11/26 DS Ranking – 8 2nd – CA D1 State Meet
Team Overview – It is hard to figure this team. They could be in the top three. They could also finish near tenth. Dana Hills ran a good race last week in placing second behind Great Oak at their state meet. Jake Ogden was their #1 runner last week. Most of the season he has been trading off that leading spot with Mason Coppi. Along with sophomore Jake Landgraf, their front three was within 21 seconds of each other at state. The overall split in that race was 42 seconds. The top three split in some of their races this year has been as close as five seconds. Ogden has the possibility of placing in the top 20. Coppi could be within five seconds of his teammate on Saturday. A split of 15 seconds or better on their top three along with a five runner split of under 40 seconds could get this team into the top three.
5 - American Fork HS, American Fork UT 11/26 DS Ranking – 18 4th – NXN Southwest Regional
Team Overview – Even though they were fourth in the Southwest Region, American Fork could surprise some in this meet. They were only 12 points behind Mountain Vista CO in that race. Casey Klinger leads the team. The Regional champion could be one of the individual favorites. This team received a boost by the return of Mckay Johns in their last two races. The junior was the third man for the team at last year’s NXN Nationals. He was within 36 seconds of Clinger at the regional race. Their five runner split since of the return of Johns has been near 76 seconds. It will need to be 65 seconds or better in Saturday’s race. If Johns can place 35th or better with their two to five split under 35 seconds, this team could be a surprise in the top five.
6 - Downingtown West HS, Downingtown PA 11/26 DS Ranking – 4 1st – NXN Northeast Regional
Team Overview – Downingtown West won the Northeast Regional last Saturday even without usual #1 runner Jaxson Hoey as the team’s third man. It helped that Josh Hoey and Henry Sappey finished in the top ten. The three were within 13 seconds of each other in the Pennsylvania 3A state meet. Jaxson could be among the top 35 in this race. It would be a plus if Josh and Sappey were within 15 seconds of him. The team’s split on five has averaged over 60 seconds most of the year. It did come down to 46 seconds at the regional race. This team has proved how good they are this season with wins at the Manhattan Invitational and then winning their 3A state championship. If the split on five can stay under 55 seconds with their top three snug close together in the front, then it would not surprise me to see this squad flirting for a top five finish.
7 - Hopkins HS, Minnetonka MN 11/26 DS Ranking – 3 1st – NXN Heartland Regional
Team Overview – This team is peaking at the right time and could be in position to finish fifth or better on Saturday. It has been the evolution of their top three and close they are running together at the end of the season. Owen Hoeft, Seth Eliason, and Jake Henschel have traded off the #1 position on the team. The pack between the three has decreased from 27 seconds at their state sectional race to five seconds at the NXN Heartland race. It was the five runner split of 19 seconds at Sioux Falls that won them the race. This could be a dangerous team especially with a pack that tight. It is possible that Hoeft or Eliason could be in the top 30. If the split on five is 28 seconds or faster in Saturday’s race, this team could be bringing home some hardware from this meet.
8 - Timpanogos HS, Orem UT 11/26 DS Ranking – 13 2nd – NXN Southwest Regional
Team Overview – Here is another team that could threaten with a top five finish. They finished only two points from winning the Southwest Regional behind the front running of Will Handley and Joe Benson. The two have run close together in their last few races. Both could be in the top 25 in this race. Handley has a chance to finish in the top 15. Their split on five has averaged near 55 seconds most of this season. It was 53 seconds at their regional race. If the gap can close on Handley to 47 seconds or faster, watch for this team to challenge for a top five finish.
9 - Fayetteville-Manlius HS, Manlius NY 11/26 DS Ranking – 7 2nd – NXN New York Regional
Team Overview – The defending NXN National champions are back once again in Portland even though this was supposed to be a “rebuilding year” for these perennial powers. They qualified out of the New York Regional even though their #1 runner Peter Ryan did not compete. He should be back for the race on Saturday. The team missed qualifying for their state meet losing to Liverpool by four points in their state section race. The strength of the team is the running of Ryan and Patrick Perry up front. Ryan finished 15th in this race last year. He could be in the same position in the 2015 race. It would be beneficial for Perry and Bryan Geehrer to be within 15 seconds of Ryan. Their 5 man split needs to be under 50 seconds up front along with a split under 50 seconds for this team to challenge for a top five finish.
10 - The Woodlands HS, The Woodlands TX 11/26 DS Ranking – 10 1st – NXN South Regional
Team Overview – With The Woodlands running in what could be considered less than ideal conditions in winning the UIL 6A State Meet and the NXN South Regional, they could feel quite at home in Portland as rain is expected for the area leading into Saturday’s race. 6A individual state champion Daniel Golden has been the #1 runner for the team all season. Noah Wells and William Hunsdale have been within 30 seconds of Golden most of the season. They were within 13 seconds of Golden in their state race. The team has been undefeated in their state this season running a split that has averaged 30 seconds. Golden could be in the top 30 in this race. If that happens and their split stays close to their average, this team could be among the ten top teams on Saturday.
11 - Christian Brothers Academy, Lincroft NJ 11/26 DS Ranking – 5 2nd – NXN Northeast Regional
Team Overview – Blase Ferro will be one of the favorites in the individual race. He will also provide a single digit number up front for CBA on Saturday. The key for this team at this meet will be the pack behind Ferro. The split on their two to five runners has been tight in their final three races. It was 17 seconds last weekend, only nine seconds when they won the New Jersey Meet of Champions, and 22 seconds when they finished second to Don Bosco in their group championship race. They will need to keep their pack within 10 to 14 seconds of each other on Saturday. If the split between Ferro and their #2 runner can stay within 40 to 43 seconds, this team could be in the hunt for a top ten finish.
12 - Lyons Township HS, LaGrange IL 11/26 DS Ranking – 19 3rd – NXN Midwest Regional
Team Overview – One of the most underrated teams in this meet. Lyons has been one of the toughest teams in Illinois this season. They finished second behind Sandburg at the Peoria Central Invitational. They had some bad luck in their meets leading up to their state meet. Normal #1 runner Vince Zona was sick but still ran their conference and sectional race. Connor Madell was sick for their sectional race. Both rebounded and were big parts of the team’s second place 3A state meet finish. The key to the team has been the emergence of sophomore Danny Kilrea who finished 10th at the state meet and then was the team’s #1 runner at NXN Midwest. Any of these three runners could be in the top 25 in this race. Watch for the split between these three runners also. 15 seconds or closer puts this team in good position. Their 5 man split has been near 45 seconds most of the year. If it is at the time or faster on Saturday, this team could be a surprise to some up front in this race.
13 - Wayzata HS, Plymouth MN 11/26 DS Ranking – 12 3rd – NXN Heartland Regional
Team Overview – Wayzata returns back to Portland after finishing third at the Heartland Regional and earning an at-large bid. It has been a tough year for this team finishing third in their conference and then failing to make it to their state meet finishing fourth in the tough 6A state sectional. This team does have the talent to be among the top ten on Saturday. Jaret Carpenter won the Minnesota 2A State Championship, the Heartland Regional, and has the potential to be among the front runners in this race. The split behind Carpenter and the split between that pack will be something to watch from this team. Khalid Hussein and Gemechu Meskele have been the leaders of the pack for this team this fall. The split between Carpenter and the pack needs to stay under 50 seconds. It the pack can stay under 20 seconds on their four runners, this team could be in the top ten.
14 - Edina HS, Edina MN 11/26 DS Ranking – 9 2nd – NXN Heartland Regional
Team Overview – Here is another Minnesota team that failed to make it to the state meet out of the tough Section 6 race. They still have the fire power up front that gave them one of the top two auto qualifying spots. Patrick Roos and Jack Manderscheid have run side by side all season and will need to duplicate that again on Saturday for this team to finish among the top ten. They have the ability to place 40th or higher individually. The split on five most of this season has been within 50 to 60 seconds. Keep an eye on senior Sam Thomas. If he can finish within 15 seconds of Roos or Manderscheid, good things could happen for this team.
15 - Mountain Vista HS, Lands Ranch CO 11/26 DS Ranking – 14 1st – NXN Southwest Regional
Team Overview – Mountain Vista edged national power Timpanagos by a single point to win the Southwest Regional. Part of that was due by a great breakthrough race by Parker Mackay. The sophomore had been the team’s fourth runner for most of the season. He stepped up to finish 18th overall in that race. Paxton Smith and Josh Romine have been the top runners for the team most of the season. A gap between these three of 16 seconds or closer could put Mountain Vista in a top ten position. Keeping their 5 man split under 40 seconds could help that finish as well.
16 - Neuqua Valley HS, Naperville IL 11/26 DS Ranking – 16 2nd – NXN Midwest Regional
Team Overview – Losing #1 runner Connor Horn at mid-season due to a stress fracture has not slowed Neuqua Valley down. They have relied on some solid pack running to earn them a third place finish in the Illinois 3A State Meet and then second at the NXN Midwest Regional to earn a trip to Portland. They have been boosted by the return of junior Scott Anderson who broke his leg at their first race of the season. Anderson has come back and has been the team’s #1 runner. Their pack is the thing to watch. They live and die running close together as evidenced by their 12 second 5 man split at state and their 22 second split in Terre Haute. Anderson is gaining more confidence and is finishing higher in races. The pack has been following his lead. Anderson should finish 50th or better in this race. If the pack led by Aidan Livingston and Jake McEnenaey is close behind, do not be surprised if this team finishes in the top ten.
17 - Southlake Carroll HS, Southlake TX 11/26 DS Ranking – 30 2nd – NXN South Regional
Team Overview – Reed Brown is the #1 runner on this team with hopes of finishing in the top 20 on Saturday. He has been the top guy on this team all season. Southlake Carroll has been running a split of close to 50 seconds on five towards the end of the season. In the sloppy conditions of their state and regional meets, it went up. Charlie Gardner has been the #2 runner towards the end of this season. If Gardner can stay within 30 seconds of Brown and the team keeps their split under 60 seconds, this team could finish fifteenth or better.
18 - Lone Peak HS, Land UT 11/26 DS Ranking – 15 3rd – NXN Southwest Regional
Team Overview – This team was a bit of a surprise in finishing third at the NXN Regional after finishing fourth at the Utah 5A State Meet. They had the same score as second place Utah 4A State Champion Timpanagos in the regional giving them an at-large berth to Portland. Lone Peak does not have a low scoring front runner on this team but does have a solid pack. Jamison Wilkes has been the #1 runner for the team most of the season. Adam Jensen was the #1 runner at Southwest race. Their 5 runner split will be under 30 seconds on Saturday. It could be enough to get the team into the top 15.
19 - Marietta HS, Marietta GA 11/26 DS Ranking – 22 1st – NXN Southeast Regional
Team Overview – Carlos Torres has been the #1 runner for the team most of this season and should be up front for the squad on Saturday. At the regional meet a week ago, Torres was the team’s fifth man as David Savic stepped up. The team has averaged a 43 second split on their top five this season. It will need that kind of effort to make a dent in the top 15 in this meet.
20 - Bozeman HS, Bozeman MT 11/26 DS Ranking – 25 2nd – NXN Northwest Regional
Team Overview – The Montana 2A state champions earned their trip to Portland after finishing second at the Northwest Regional. This is a young team that will make its presence known a little more in 2016. There are three juniors and three sophomores that are in their top seven. Riley Collins has been the team’s #1 runner all year. If the split for their top five can be under 40 seconds with Collins flirting with a top 50 finish, this team could have the potential to finish in the top 15.
21 - Summit HS, Bend OR 11/26 DS Ranking – 20 1st – NXN Northwest Regional
Team Overview – The Oregon 5A state champions edged Bozeman by eight points to win the Northwest Regional title earning them a trip to run in their “backyard”. Alex Martin has been the team’s #1 runner all year and will be up front for the team on Saturday. Summit has been running 40 to 45 seconds on an average for their top five. The team could place in the top 15 with that split and a great finish by Martin or Thomas Schoderbek.
22 - Trinity Prep Academy, Winter Haven FL 11/26 DS Ranking – NR 2nd – NXN Southeast Regional
Team Overview – Trinity Prep has been in and out of the top 30 this season. They first entered when they won the Flrunners.com Invitational defeating then ranked St. Anthony NY. This team took off with the addition of eighth grade brothers Kayamo and Mamush Galloway into their top seven. They won the Florida 2A State championship led by the win of Charles Cook and third place finish by Kayamo Galloway. A split of 45 seconds on their top five could boost this team into the top 20.
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Team Race Summary – I think this race is more wide open than people think. Great Oak comes off of a great race at their state meet and could have the edge on the national championship. Sandburg has been ranked #1 the second half in the season and has the talent to bring the national championship back to Illinois. Liverpool has been running good towards the end of the year and could be a threat up front. Teams like Hopkins, Downingtown West, Dana Hills, and American Fork all have the talent to be in the top three. This is a deep field where any of the top 12 teams that we listed could end up in the top five.
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Individual Qualifiers
Heartland - 2. Micah Mather, Highland Park MN; 3. Seth Hirsch, Millard West NE; 4. Finn Gessner, Madison La Follette WI; 5. Sam Clausnitzer, Bismarck ND; 8. Kevin Koski, Chequamegon Falls WI
Midwest - 1. Jon Davis, Oakwood IL; 2. Ben Veatch, Carmel IN; 4. Jack Aho, Grayslake Central IL; 5. Charlie Kern Jr., York IL; 7. Morgan Beadlescomb, Algonac MI
Northwest - 1. Brody Smith, Cody WY; 2. Jack Yearian, Bellarmine Prep WA; 3. Andy Monroe, Crater OR; 4. Ahmed Muhumed, West Salem OR; 5. Chris Henry, Laramie WY
Southwest - 2. Alek Parsons, Ogden UT; 3. Paul Roberts, Lyons CO; 4. Isaac Green, Monarch CO; 5. Henry Raymond, Poudre CO; 6. Ben Butler, Skyview CO
South - 2. Devyn Keith, John Curtis LA; 5. Daniel Bernal, Eastwood TX; 6. Sam Worley, NB Canyon TX; 7. Matthew Kearney, Westlake TX; 9. Theo Goff, Oak Ridge TX
Southeast - 1. Brodey Hasty, Brentwood TN; 2. Kevin Murray, Charter of Wilmington DE; 3. Frank Pittman, Marist GA; 4. Colin Schaefer, Lake Braddock VA; 5. Jeremy Brown, Needham Broughton NC
Northeast - 2. Tim Bason, West Windsor-Plainsboro South; 3. David Principe Jr, La Salle RI; 4. Aaron Groff, Cherry Hill East NJ; 5. Matthew Bouthillette, La Salle RI; 6. Kent Hall, Unionville PA
New York - 2. Aidan Tooker, Saratoga Springs; 3. Kenny Vasbinder, East Aurora; 4. Dan Schaffer, Maine-Endwell; 5. Donovan Glavin, McQuaid Jesuit; 7. Noah Carey, Guilderland.
California - 1. Austin Tamagno, Brea Olinda; 2. Eduardo Herrera, Madera South; 3. Steven Khan, Ayala; 4. Garrett Reynolds, Ventura; 5. Justin Robinson, Lynbrook.
Individual Race Preview
This race should be crowded towards the front. It is up for grabs on who could come out on top. Ben Petrella (Liverpool HS) has been tough to beat ever since his fifth place finish at the beginning of October at the Manhattan Invitational. He has come on strong winning his New York Section, Class A State, and NXN New York Regional races. His time of 15:31 at the Bowdoin Park course is the third fastest ever for that race at that park. He would be one runner to keep an eye on.
Austin Tamagno (Brea Olinda CA) will be attending the University of Oregon next season. He will get used to his new area surroundings as one of the favorites in this race. He has gone undefeated this season including running 14:03 to win his league finals at the beginning of November. The 14:45.9 that he ran to win the California D3 State Meet last weekend was a divisional record and the ninth fastest time ever at Woodward Park. He will be one of the runners that will be in the front.
Jon Davis (Oakwood IL) has emerged during the season as one of the top runners in the nation. He has proved in his last three races that he could be the runner to beat in this race. He has gone undefeated this season using different tactics to get the end result. In his wins at the NXN Midwest Regional and the Foot Locker Midwest Regional, he waited until the final 800 of each of the races for the win. He ran the seventh fastest time ever (13:59.3) at the Detweiller Park 3 mile course winning his third straight Illinois 1A state championship. He ran 4:31 – 9:21 and then came in with a 2:06 final 800 running the race by himself. He has not received national recognition during the regular season, I feel he will get that recognition after this race Saturday afternoon.
Ben Veatch (Carmel IN) and Paul Roberts (Lyons CO) finished within a second of Davis last weekend at the Foot Locker Miidwest Regional and will be towards the front of the pack in this race. Eduardo Herrera (Madera South CA) ran 14:48 to win the California D1 State Meet and will be one of those runners to watch. Casey Klinger (American Fork UT) and Jaret Carpenter (Wayzata MN) have the talent to be at the front.
Out of the top runners to be in the top 30 in this meet, only 10 look to be team runners. Runners that should be challenging for the top 15 in this race include Blaise Ferro (Christian Brothers NJ), Alek Parsons (Ogden UT), Micah Mather (Highland Park MN), Spencer Dodds and Cole Spencer (Great Oak CA), David Principe Jr. (La Salle Academy RI), Charlie Kern Jr. (York IL), Jack Aho (Grayslake Central IL), Sean Torpy (Sandburg IL), and Brody Smith (Cody WY). More news
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